380
FXUS63 KOAX 290446
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1146 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some patchy fog is possible overnight into Friday morning in
  eastern Nebraska (30% chance).

- Rain chances move into northeast Nebraska Friday afternoon
  into Friday night (20-40% chance).

- Rain chances become more widespread Saturday and Sunday with a
  30-50% chance at any given time for most of the area and a
  50-70% chance in much of eastern Nebraska Saturday night into
  early Sunday. Severe weather is not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Pretty quiet early this afternoon, though we had some pesky clouds
hanging in portions of northeast and southeast NE which kept
temperatures a couple degrees cooler than expected (mid 70s to lower
80s as of 3 PM). We should stay quiet through this evening and while
some guidance has hinted at some light shower development along a
surface trough near the NE/SD border, latest CAMs suggest that
activity should stay to our north. The other thing to watch
overnight into early Friday will be potential fog development with
HREF guidance suggesting a 30% chance of dense fog near and west of
Highway 77. However, we`ll probably have some mid to high level
clouds passing through and model soundings show winds aloft may be
just strong enough to keep it somewhat patchy.

For Friday, a shortwave trough currently over ID/WY will start
tracking along the NE/SD border. An attendant surface low will start
to push east along the SD/NE border on Friday, dragging a surface
boundary and some showers and storms toward the area. Instability
will be quite limited in our area, so activity should generally
dissipate as it pushes east. However, still should be enough
isentropic ascent into Friday evening in northeast NE to generate at
least some light rain.

Higher and more widespread precip chances will arrive for the
weekend as the low looks to take its sweet time to exit the area. In
fact, guidance suggests it could linger over NE/SD through Monday.
As a result, expect continued shower and storm chances through the
weekend. Not quite ready to call any one day a washout, but it could
be trending that way in parts of northeast NE on Saturday (50-70%
chance in the afternoon). Elsewhere, guidance suggests it could be a
little more spotty, though still have 30-50% chances Saturday
through Monday. Should also note, with limited instability and weak
shear, not expecting any severe weather, so just some rain and maybe
a few rumbles of thunder. Otherwise, expect the cool weather to
continue with high temperatures in the 70s and lows in the upper 50s
to lower 60s.

The system looks to finally exit by Tuesday morning, but larger
scale trough will start digging into the Great Lakes region,
eventually forming a cutoff low, while a cold front surges south
through the forecast area. Guidance suggests there will be some rain
along the cold front, but there remains spread in how far southwest
it will extend with EPS members generally showing a deeper/farther
west trough compared to GEFS members. Regardless of precip, it`ll
give us another shot of cooler weather, with some suggestions places
only top out in the mid to upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Some patchy fog may sneak into parts of the forecast area, with
the potential for patchy MVFR to IFR visibilities around the
TAF sites from around 10-15Z. Winds will remain out of the south
at under 12kts through Friday. Afternoon cumulus will be
possible again tomorrow, around FL020-040, but should remain
scattered in nature.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...KG