386
FXUS63 KOAX 182342
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
542 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering cloud cover and cool temperatures overnight will
  lead to areas of patchy fog or drizzle (20-30% chance).

- Another storm system will move into the region Friday,
  bringing a 20-50% chance for rain across southeast Nebraska
  and far southern Iowa.

- Mild, dry weather returns over the weekend before a third
  system arrives on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features yet another spinning low
over the California/Baja coast working to stream moisture into the
Desert Southwest ahead of it, while weak ridging is sandwiched
between it and the departing wave pushing across the southern
Great Lakes region. A recent surface analysis has a cold front
extending along the Nebraska/Kansas border that connects to the
surface low pressure trough near eastern Iowa, with low cloud
cover filling in just to the north of the front. Areas that have
avoided clouds for most of the day have been able to warm into
the lower 50s while the rest of the forecast area has remainder
dreary and chilly in the 40s with northerly winds.

Overnight, the main concern will be lower visibilities, which may
manifest differently across portions of the forecast area. Deeper
moisture will linger along the NE/IA border into northwest and
central Iowa, with low-level lapse rates being steep enough for
some drizzle to develop after 8 PM. The second area of lower
visibility would likely develop late into the overnight hours,
where limited cloud cover will allow for increased radiational
cooling to occur and help surface air temperatures fall to the
crossover temperatures. This area will be focused generally
over south-central Nebraska and north-central Kansas, with
uncertainty as to how far it extends into southeast Nebraska. In
between these two areas, better visibilities are expected
overnight and into tomorrow morning.

For tomorrow, expect to see the bulk of the low-level cloud cover
departing to the east by the afternoon hours, with mid/high clouds
letting us see at least some sun. Winds will swing easterly in the
morning, becoming southerly and gusty by the afternoon hours and we
will see temperatures improve in kind, topping out in the upper 50s
for eastern Nebraska while the border into Iowa reaches the low 50s.

Thursday and Beyond:

In the wee hours of Thursday morning, a weak cold front will once
again begin to swing winds northwesterly -- moving slowly
southeastward while bringing with it continued dry weather as most
of the deeper moisture continues to be relegated to the states south
of the forecast area. High temperatures will counter-intuitively be
as warm if not slightly warmer compared to Wednesday for most of
the area, thanks to clearer skies and lingering southwesterly
winds ahead of the front holding on into the afternoon.

Friday into the weekend continues to trend drier, with the latest
runs of the deterministic and ensemble models ushering the
forcing from the aforementioned CA/Baja low across Kansas with
some of the northern extent of the rainfall clipping our
southern border. Even if we see a northward nudge to the system,
rain will be forecast due to the primary jet stream locking up
the coldest air in Canada. Yet another California coastal low
will have developed by this time, poised to eject northeastward
for another similar patter to what we`ve seen over the last
several days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 542 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

MVFR ceilings favored to stick around into Wednesday, scattering
out toward late morning/early afternoon. Guidance still suggests
some fog/drizzle could develop across central Nebraska and
portions of southwest Iowa overnight, but favors those potential
restrictions staying west and east of the TAF sites. That said,
a few pieces of guidance do suggest some drizzle could sneak
into OMA around 11-14Z, so will need to closely monitor trends.
Otherwise, winds will turn clockwise through the period and
generally remain under 10 kts, starting at northerly to
northeasterly and becoming southeasterly to southerly by early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...CA