207
FXUS63 KOAX 032325
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
525 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will gradually push northeast through this evening, with
  some patchy drizzle into the overnight (10-20% chance).
  Additional rain chances expected late Wednesday into Thursday
  (20-40% chance).

- Cooler through Friday with some areas struggling to get out of
  the 40s. 50s and 60s return this weekend.

- Portions of northeastern Nebraska and west-central Iowa will
  have lows fall to around freezing Friday and Saturday
  mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Early afternoon analysis showed the cutoff low responsible for
our widespread rain spinning along the southeast NE/KS border
with rain and drizzle still falling across most of the area.
There are also a few thunderstorms in the NE/KS/IA/MO border
area which should continue this afternoon, but those should
remain few and far between in our forecast area. Heaviest precip
should exit to our northeast this evening, though guidance
hints at some patchy drizzle lingering into the overnight hours.
That said, model soundings do show a shallow dry layer at the
surface with low level cold air advection leading to quite a bit
of subsidence, so anything that does develop should be pretty
patchy.

By Wednesday morning, the low is progged to be near the IA/MN
border with some shortwave energy and surface trough rounding
the back side and perhaps bringing some additional light rain to
areas near the NE/SD border. Otherwise, the gusty northwest
winds will continue, though a bit weaker, and will continue to
usher in cooler air. Expect highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s with
perhaps a little sunshine in southeast NE by late afternoon.
The surface trough will continue southeast through the area on
Thursday bringing some additional 20-40% rain chances to much of
the area during the day. Precip should exit by Thursday
afternoon with guidance in good agreement that we`ll see very
little additional accumulation. Expect a few hundredths to maybe
a tenth of an inch.

Dry weather is favored Friday into the weekend as a shortwave
ridge slides through and larger scale upper level ridging builds
over the western CONUS, leaving us under northwest flow aloft.
A few various ensemble members suggest some weak shortwave
energy and associated light precip could slide through the
northwest flow, but consensus of those solutions with precip
keep any accumulation out of our area. For now, have only about
a 5% chance of any rain this weekend. Otherwise, daytime
temperatures will start to creep back up as we see less and less
cloud cover heading through the weekend. Expect highs in the
upper 50s and 60s Saturday through Monday. One final note,
Thursday night and Friday night look to be the coolest nights of
the week, with portions of northeast NE and west-central IA
expected to see temperatures near or below freezing. Obviously,
it`s the time of year where those temperatures are pretty
common, but given the recent warm weather, friendly reminder to
keep an eye on the temperature forecast for your location and
disconnect outdoor hoses and drain those sprinkler systems as
necessary.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 519 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR conditions are in place this evening, largely driven by
ceilings just above FL010 at all three TAF sites, with IFR
conditions expected to build in over the next couple of hours at
KOFK first, followed by KOMA. Winds are the strongest that
they`ll be for the next 24 hours, only gradually losing speed
from the nearly 30 kt gusts as of now, dropping off gusts and
reducing sustained speeds by the end of the TAF period. The
spotty visibility restrictions to 4-5 SM will continue to be
possible over the next 6-10 hours, especially for KOMA where
the best bet for drizzle is, improving to 6SM or better by 10
area- wide.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Petersen