046
FXUS63 KOAX 140431
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1131 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer than average temperatures top out in the upper 80s and
  lower 90s Saturday and Sunday.

- On-and-off shower and thunderstorms chances (15-60% PoPs) into
  early next week. Best severe-weather potential currently
  appears to be Tuesday, with slightly less chance on Saturday,
  Sunday, and Monday.

- Highs continue to hover around 90 into early next week, before
  a brief cool down arrives Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Today through Sunday...

By 3PM this afternoon, patchy cloud cover had kept temperatures
limited to the low to mid 80s.  A subtle warm front could be seen on
satellite, draped over northeast Nebraska. We could see a few weakly
forced showers or storms develop along this boundary this evening,
however confidence is pretty low. A weakening MCV rolled through
south central Nebraska into northern Kansas, skirting a few showers
across far southeast Nebraska.

An MCS will develop over western Nebraska tonight and follow a
similar track through south central NE, into eastern Kansas Saturday
morning. The bulk of the precipitation will likely stay to our west,
but once again, could graze the western fringe of our forecast area.

A shortwave will ripple through the northern plains Saturday
afternoon and evening, bringing additional thunderstorms along the
warm front over southern South Dakota. While most CAM solutions keep
these storms just to our north, their placement will likely vary
based on where the boundary sets up.

Another shortwave will impact the region on Sunday, igniting
convection along a boundary draped over northeast Nebraska. Once
again, this doesn`t look like a slam dunk for precipitation
coverage. Given the relatively weak forcing, and lack of model
consensus, PoPs will be limited to 30-40% through the weekend.
Steepening lapse rates and just over 1000 J/kg of CAPE could lead to
a couple of strong to severe storms, if convection does develop.
Temperatures will remain warm through the weekend, with highs near
90.

Monday and Beyond...

Yet another shortwave traverses the region Monday, developing
convection across northeast Nebraska. Abundant instability,
steepening lapse rates, and 30-40kts of shear could lead to a few
strong to severe storms by Monday afternoon.

A midlevel trough will move out of the Rockies into the Central
Plains on Tuesday, bringing what looks to be our best chance for
severe weather. The warm front previously over northeast Nebraska
will sag south, bisecting the forecast area by Tuesday. Large scale
ascent ahead of the approaching trough will lead to thunderstorm
development across the area. Moderate shear, strong instability, and
steepening lapse rates could lead to large hail and strong winds, a
threat which is highlighted in increasing machine learning outlooks.
In addition to the severe threat, slow moving fronts combined with
plentiful moisture could lead to flash flooding concerns by midweek.

Temperatures drop from the low 90s on Monday to the 80s Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temperatures increase again on Thursday and into next
weekend as a ridge begins to build into the southern half of the
nation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

No major aviation concerns are expected in the near term as VFR
conditions prevail. S/SE`rly winds will be common through the
forecast periods while a FEW low-level CU clouds develop
Saturday afternoon. Some hi-res models do point toward some
shower and thunderstorm activity (20-30% chance) later in the
current forecast window, but any mention of precipitation has
been excluded in the TAFs at this time due to a high amount of
uncertainty.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...RW