793
FXUS63 KOAX 041109
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
509 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy drizzle continues to decrease in coverage and shift
  northeast this evening. Additional rain chances expected late
  Wednesday into Thursday (20-40% chance).

- Cooler through Friday with some areas struggling to get out of
  the 40s. 50s and 60s return this weekend.

- Portions of northeastern Nebraska and west-central Iowa will
  have lows fall to around freezing Friday and Saturday
  mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Tonight and Wednesday:

Water vapor imagery this evening shows our recent weather maker in
the form of a seasonably strong upper-level trough continuing to
push to the northeast across the mid-Mississippi Valley towards the
Great Lakes, while more compact trough pushes across the Great
Basin. Locally we`re dealing with the leftovers from the larger
system to the east, with lingering low stratus, gusty winds and
areas of light rain and drizzle making for a dreary evening for
many. Cooler air wrapping around with the gusty winds will take our
current temperatures down a few more degrees, bottoming out in the
upper 30s to low 40s with lighter winds greeting folks heading out
the door early. On the edge of the clouds near the north-central NE
and SD border, fog has developed, leaking slightly eastward. Some of
those lower visibilities (one mile or less) may try and reach into
western Knox/Antelope/Boone Counties between 5-8 AM, with those
chances being around 20%.

Heading through Wednesday, we`ll kick most of the precipitation
from the overnight and early morning hours, in favor of a crisp
fall day that tops out in the upper 40s to mid 50s. With the
surface pressure gradient lessening through the day, winds will
follow suit before dropping gusts later in the afternoon. Clouds
will still be hard to kick, as the back end of the deformation
axis with the previous system joins with PVA from the incoming
shortwave to the west. CAMs indicate that some very light
precipitation is possible as the best forcing moves through, but
we`ll be on the dry side of things when it comes to moisture in
the column. Those chances build into northeast Nebraska after 6
PM, arriving to the I-80 corridor around midnight before
exiting the area by 7 AM Thursday.

Thursday and Beyond:

We continue to struggle to kick the clouds Thursday and Friday, with
similar highs in the upper 40s to low 50s on tap to close out the
work week. Forecast soundings show a shallow boundary layer
Thursday, with steep enough lapse rates for some areas to see some
sprinkles despite how shallow it is. Breaks in the clouds become
larger Friday despite a positively-tilted shortwave moving
southeastward through the area -- further evidence that moisture
return into the area continues to be nonexistent.

Clouds fully break this weekend and temperatures change in tune,
stepping up into the 50s Saturday before rising to the 60s Sunday to
make for a wonderful weekend to be outside. The ridge to the west of
the area nudges eastward just enough to ward off a weak clipper
shortwave before deamplifying into quasi-zonal flow headed through
the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 509 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Cigs are hovering around 1000-1600ft across the area this
morning. We`ll see cigs hover around 1200-1800ft through the
morning into the afternoon with cigs lifting to 2000-2500ft
around 20-22Z at KOFK and KLNK, closer to 00Z at KOMA. Cigs will
be breaking up south, with KLNK almost clearing out this
evening. Another weak system brings lower clouds back in
overnight with cigs dropping back down to 1500-2500ft into
Thursday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...McCoy