522
FXUS63 KOAX 112032
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
232 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much warmer today with high fire danger in northeast Nebraska.

- Continued warm through Friday and possibly into Saturday when
  highs will be in the 60s to low 70s.

- Dry through the work week with precipitation chances dwindling
  for the weekend (10-15% chance Saturday night through
  Sunday).

- 30-50% chance of precipitation Monday. This will most likely
  be rain, but there is about a 10% chance we see some
  accumulating snow in some locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Early afternoon analysis showed a surface trough extending from
central IA into far southeast NE and into KS. Behind the
trough, northwest winds were a touch breezy, with a few gusts of
20-25 mph out there. Despite the northwest winds, we were much
warmer than yesterday, with temperatures as of 2 PM ranging
from the upper 50s in southwest Iowa to the lower 70s in
a few spots in eastern NE.

Meanwhile, a surface cold front started to edge into the area
from the north this afternoon and should clear south of the area
this evening with surface high pressure quickly building in
behind it. This sets the stage for a clear night with light
winds and a few pieces of guidance even develop some fog, mainly
in river valleys/low areas. However, looking at model
soundings, winds just above the surface look like they`ll stay
strong enough to keep it rather patchy if it does develop. The
rest of Wednesday will be quiet with light winds becoming
westerly to southerly as the surface high passes off to the
east. Expect highs to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

For Thursday, some weak shortwave energy will pass through the
area and lead to some increased cloud cover, at least to start
the day. At the surface, low pressure will start to deepen east
of the Rockies with southerly to southwesterly low level flow
strengthening. This will bump temperatures back up a few degrees
on Thursday. By Friday, a mid to upper level ridge axis will
push into the area with continued southwesterly flow. NAEFS
guidance also shows 850 mb temperatures in the 99th+ percentile
of climatology for most of the area, and while model soundings
show we won`t be mixing quite that deep, it`ll still be a very
warm airmass in place. For now, forecast high temps are in the
upper 60s to mid 70s, including 72 at Norfolk, which would tie
the record from 2001. Omaha and Lincoln could also come close to
record highs, but currently look to be a few degrees short:

Omaha - forecast 70, record 76 (1964). Lincoln - forecast 73,
record 75 (1990).

For the weekend and into early next week, guidance is starting
to come into a little bit better agreement in how things pan
out. For Saturday, a trough and surface low are on track to push
through the Dakotas/southern Canada and drag a surface cold
front through the forecast area. Still some questions on exact
timing of the front which will impact temperatures in a given
location, but currently we`re looking at highs ranging from the
lower 60s in northeast NE to the lower 70s in portions of
southeast NE and southwest IA. Meanwhile, a cutoff low will be
pushing into the Desert Southwest on Saturday, with guidance
trending much slower on its eastward movement through the
weekend. A slower progression of this low will be at least
partially responsible for less moisture return ahead of the cold
front pushing through Saturday. This means precipitation
chances with the front continue to dwindle in our area, with
consensus now suggesting just a 10-15% chance Saturday evening
into Sunday, mainly in far southeast NE into southwest IA.

However, guidance has generally trended a bit farther north
with the southern low track as we head into Monday (though still
some differences in timing/track), with many ensemble members
taking a deformation band of precipitation across our forecast
area. While guidance generally favors rain, a few various
solutions do suggest some accumulating snow with temperatures in
the lower 30s, so definitely worth keeping an eye on the
forecast. For now, we`re looking at a 30-50% chance of
precipitation Monday, with about a 10- 15% chance of seeing
snow. Otherwise, temperatures will be on a downward trend to
begin next week, with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s on
Sunday, followed by upper 40s to lower 50s Monday and Tuesday
with any precip potentially leading to even cooler weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period with passing mid to
high level clouds this afternoon. A few pieces of guidance hint
at fog/low cloud development overnight into Wednesday morning,
mainly in river valleys, but think winds aloft will stay strong
enough to keep it very patchy, so no mention at this time.
Otherwise, winds will remain northwesterly with a few gusts near
20 kts this afternoon before weakening for this evening and
Wednesday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA