


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
676 FXUS63 KOAX 161952 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 252 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 40-60% chance of storm development south of I-80, mainly after 10 pm. The strongest storms will be capable of gusty winds and perhaps some hail. Of greater concern is the potential for localized flooding. - Additional rounds of storms are expected from Friday afternoon into the weekend. Severe weather will be possible at times, with the threat of flooding increasing with each successive round. - Cooler on Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 70s, but we quickly warm back up with 80s Friday and mid 80s to lower 90s for the weekend. Temperatures may reach the upper 90s to around 100 degrees at some locations early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...Remainder of this afternoon through Thursday... Surface analysis and satellite data indicate the cool front which moved through our area last night is currently situated across northeast KS and northwest MO as of early afternoon. That boundary will likely be the focus for surface-based storm development later this afternoon. Prior to that occurrence, a small band of showers and isolated thunderstorms has recently formed along the south-central NE/north-central KS border, with that activity drifting east-southeast. By late this evening into tonight, the models suggest that modest low-level warm advection atop the frontal surface will be sufficient to force a west-to-east-oriented band of elevated thunderstorms across portions of southeast NE and southwest IA. Forecast soundings within the inflow air mass of the elevated storms indicate moderate instability for elevated parcels, amidst a kinematic environment featuring 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear. Poor mid-level lapse rates are likely to modulate updraft velocities despite MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, with a low- probability risk (5-10%) for strong wind gusts and/or marginally severe hail. Of potentially greater concern, is the threat for localized flooding given the model signal for regenerative/training thunderstorm development. Moreover, the heaviest rainfall with last night`s MCS occurred across the same parts of southeast NE that the models are predicting tonight`s storm development. Aside from the storm chances, we could see some increase in wildfire smoke concentrations; the greatest of which will occur aloft, and not directly affect surface conditions. On Thursday, the cooler Canadian air mass currently overspreading our area will be fully in place, with high temperatures in the 70s; roughly 10-15 degrees below normal. Some smoke could linger, but again, it`s expected to largely remain aloft. We`ll see a brief break from precipitation chances into Thursday night. ...Friday through the weekend... On Friday, mid/upper-level zonal flow is forecast to strengthen across the north-central CONUS in conjunction with a sheared vorticity maximum translating along the U.S./Canadian border. At the surface, a weak surface low is forecast to develop east along the NE/SD state line, with the above-mentioned front lifting north back into our area. Low-level warm advection occurring along and south of that boundary will result in warmer daytime temperatures, with highs bouncing back into the 80s. Precipitation chances will once again increase, with the best shower and thunderstorm potential existing in the vicinity of the boundary, especially Friday afternoon into Friday night. Model soundings near the boundary indicate an environment supportive of a few strong to severe storms, in addition to the continued risk for flooding rainfall. The surface front is expected to linger in the area this weekend, supporting additional shower and thunderstorm chances. Some severe weather is possible, per the various ML-based forecast systems. Flooding will remain a concern, especially at locations that experience repeated thunderstorm activity. High temperatures will range from low/mid 80s across the northern half of our area to low/mid 90s across portions of southeast NE. ...Early next week... The 12z global models are in reasonably good agreement in showing the intensification of a subtropical high centered over the lower MS Valley into Ozark Plateau region. Associated height rises/ridging aloft is forecast across the mid MO Valley, which will translate to warmer temperatures and potentially drier weather. This forecast update will indicate as much, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Some 100s are even possible along the KS border. Generally dry conditions are forecast, though the models indicate some precipitation potential by Wednesday in association with a weak mid-level disturbance moving through the west/northwest periphery of the upper high. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 MVFR ceilings (FL010-025) have been more widespread this morning than what model guidance has shown, and this leads to some uncertainty in how long restrictions will persist this afternoon, particularly at KOMA and KLNK. Confidence is high that MVFR conditions will persist through the remainder of the afternoon into this evening at KOFK, with this forecast update indicating a lower confidence transition from MVFR to VFR ceilings by about 20z at KOMA and KLNK. Prevailing VFR conditions will be maintained into tonight at KOMA and KLNK, but some model data suggest that MVFR ceilings could redevelop. Latest CAM output indicates thunderstorms developing in the KLNK vicinity between 17/03-04z. However, TSRA will not be included in the forecast at this time as it`s possible the storms will remain to the immediate south of the terminal site. Finally, north-northwest winds are expected to strengthen to around 12 kt this afternoon into evening, especially at KOFK and KOMA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...Mead