627
FXUS63 KOAX 141713
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1213 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and humid through Tuesday.

- There is a 50-80% chance of storms late Tuesday afternoon
  through Tuesday night, with a 10-20% chance of severe storms,
  especially in northeast Nebraska. The primary threats are
  damaging winds and localized flooding, but some hail is also
  possible.

- Additional rounds of storms will continue Wednesday into early
  Thursday, and again Friday evening into the weekend. Severe
  weather will be possible at times, with the threat of flooding
  increasing with each successive round.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Another pretty quiet night across the region as we remained on
the eastern periphery mid-level ridging. There was some fog in
the area again, mainly in eastern IA, but dewpoint depressions
were several degrees higher than they were last night and model
soundings show we`ll have slightly stronger winds to keep us a
little more mixed. Therefore, it should stay pretty patchy so
not expecting any sort of advisory at this time, but worth
monitoring over the next several hours. Otherwise, the rest of
today should be quiet, warm, and humid with temperatures a few
degrees warmer than yesterday and highs in the upper 80s to mid
90s in a few spots.

On Tuesday, an upper level trough will start to dig into the
northern CONUS with a surface cold front pushing through the
Dakotas and into the forecast area by late afternoon/evening.
Ahead of the front, we`ll see another day with highs in the
upper 80s to mid 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower
70s. This combined with steepening mid-level lapse rates will
yield a fairly unstable airmass across central into northeast NE
with HREF mean SBCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. As the front
approaches, expect storms to develop near the north-central
NE/south-central SD border somewhere in the 2-4 PM range and
eventually grow upscale into an MCS that will push into the
forecast area by late afternoon/early evening. Expect a large
hail threat as storms first get going, but this should
transition to mainly a damaging wind and perhaps localized
flooding threat as the MCS matures. Shear will be somewhat
limited with the strongest deep layer shear well behind the
front/MCS, though still looking at 20-25 kts of 0-3 km shear
which should be enough for some degree of organization. Still,
assuming that pans out, it still probably wouldn`t be enough to
prevent the MCS from becoming outflow dominant as it pushes
farther southeast into our area. So the big question will be how
far southeast the damaging wind threat extends. Currently think
the highest risk will be in northeast NE, with decreasing, but
non-zero, potential across southeast NE into west-central and
southwest IA. Finally, regarding the flooding threat, the
heaviest rain does look fairly progressive, but given recent
rainfall, it may not take much to see at least some localized
flooding issues.

The front and perhaps outflow boundary are likely to be hanging
out somewhere in/near the forecast area on Wednesday with
potential for lingering showers and storms during the day
(20-40% chance). However, higher chances will likely hold off
until the evening when some stronger shortwave energy currently
over southwest Canada starts to approach the area. Depending
what happens with precip/clouds during the day Wednesday, we may
be able to build enough instability to yield another
hail/damaging wind threat as these storms move through, but
confidence in these smaller scale details is pretty low at this
time. Regardless, another widespread rainfall that could last
into Thursday would further elevate the threat for some
flooding, especially if areas start to get repeated rounds of
heavier rain.

Guidance indicates that we should get a break by Thursday
evening into early Friday as the front pushes south of the area.
However, it looks like it could be short-lived as guidance
suggests another bit of shortwave energy will approach Friday,
with a surface low spinning up over eastern CO and helping to
drag the front back north into the area as a warm front. The
general pattern would suggest another day for potential severe
weather, but again, lots of details to be worked out there.
Beyond that, additional bits of shortwave energy look to ripple
through the flow and give us continued off and on storm chances
into the weekend. Otherwise, temperatures behind the mid-week
front will cool off quite a bit, especially Thursday, with highs
in the mid 70s to mid 80s. However, we`ll start to warm back up
Friday as the front pushes back north, with highs back in the
mid 80s to lower 90s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Some upper level
smoke from ongoing wildfires to our west may lead to hazy skies
at times, but no near surface visibility restrictions are
anticipated. Winds will remain out of the south at 5 to 12 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...KG