724
FXUS63 KOAX 011736
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1136 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 15-20% chance for some light rain showers Sunday afternoon.
  Highs warm to the mid 60s under cloudy skies.

- Good chance (90-100%) for showers and storms late Sunday into
  Monday morning. A few storms Monday afternoon and evening
  could become strong to severe for areas southeast of a line
  from Albion to Wayne, NE.

- Rain clears out early Wednesday, with low rain chances through
  the end of the week (20% or less). Temperatures remain in the
  50s and 60s from Tuesday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Today through Monday...

Skies will remain cloudy this afternoon as a deepening low pressure
system approaches from the west coast. Strengthening warm air
advection out of the south, ahead of the system, will help produce
spotty showers and areas of drizzle later this afternoon and
evening. Highs today will top out in the mid to upper 60s under the
dreary conditions. Wide spread rain chances will continue to
overspread eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa overnight, as low
temperatures dip into the mid to upper 50s.

Southerly winds will increase ahead of the approaching low Monday
morning, reaching speeds up to 35 to 45 mph. The push of warmer air
out of the south will draw highs back into the upper 60s and low
70s, Monday, as showers and a few rumbles of thunder continue to
move through.

Storm chances increase Monday evening, as up to 500-1000 J/kg of
instability pools ahead of an approaching cold front. Moderate low
level turning evident in forecast hodographs, as well as 40-50 kts
of deep layer shear provide support for the development of strong to
severe storms across far southeast Nebraska Monday evening. These
storms could be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and perhaps
a tornado or two, given the low cloud bases and tightly wound Low
pressure system. However, weak lapse rates and persistent dreary
cloud cover could limit storm potential. For now, the SPC maintains
a Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk for severe storms southeast of a line
from Albion to Wayne, NE.

Monday Night through Wednesday...

The dry slot of the system passes over the region behind line of
potential storms Monday night, giving most locations a brief
reprieve from precipitation.

However, this will be followed by the deformation zone, during the
afternoon Tuesday, bringing another round of rain. Winds ramp up as
the backside of the low moves through, with northerly gusts up to 25
to 35 mph. Afternoon highs will be notably cooler, ranging from
around 50 in far northeast Nebraska to the low 60s in southeast
Nebraska/southwest Iowa.

Showers exit the area to the northeast early Wednesday, with cooler
temperatures lingering. Lows dropping into the mid 30s to low 40s
Tuesday night will only rise into the 50s for most locations
Wednesday.

Thursday and Beyond...

A second, weaker shortwave looks to move out of the Four Corners
region through the Southern Plains mid to late week. This could
bring a line of showers across far southeast Nebraska Thursday,
however there remains quite a bit of disparities in timing and
location of the wave with the deterministic models.

Overall, high temperatures are expected to remain in the 50s to low
60s, with overnight lows falling into the 30s and 40s through the
end of the coming week. Any chances for rain beyond the
Monday/Tuesday system remain low at < 20%.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Tricky TAFs continue as ceilings wobble between MVFR and IFR,
with a few patches where the sun is able to make a brief
appearance. Rain chances will increase this afternoon, through
tonight, and into Monday ahead of an approaching weather system.
A few thunderstorms will be possible, especially Monday
afternoon and evening. However confidence in exactly when and
where these storms occur remains too low to include a mention
in the TAF at this point.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG