550
FXUS63 KOAX 221043
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
543 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few storms gradually overspread the area early
  this morning and linger throughout most of the day (25 to 50%
  chance). Highs reach the 70s in most locations.

- More showers and some storms move in early Thursday morning
  and last into Friday. Some areas could receive heavy rainfall,
  particularly over far southeast Nebraska.

- Warm weather returns for this weekend into early next week,
  with heat indices potentially reaching the 105 to 110F mark
  by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

04z RAP objective analysis shows the H5 ridge dominating much of the
Central and Southern Plains region. Looking at the lower levels,
cold advection remains in place just east of the main H8 high over
much of the Northern Plains.

The cooler air will result in comfortable highs reaching the 70s to
near 80F along the KS/NE border for Wednesday. Early this
morning, a weak shortwave is progged to ride the northwest
periphery of the ridge and eject southeastward into the area. A
stream of low level moisture transport will also round the
western periphery of the high in addition to weak warm
advection, helping generate some scattered rain showers. A few
isolated thunderstorms could develop south of Interstate 80, but
instability appears fairly limited at less than 400 J/kg.

CAM guidance is in fairly good agreement in generating the band
of scattered showers by 10z across our northwest, eventually
overspreading the area late this morning and lingering into the
late evening. With this forecast update, PoPs of 25 to 50%
slowly increase from west to east after 10z, tapering off after
02z. Higher chances (50 to 75%) will be confined mostly to areas
west of a line from Verdigre to North Bend to Ceresco through
about 6 pm.

Similar to today, early Thursday morning will see another H5
shortwave eject from near the ridge axis over Montana toward the
area. Mid-level kinematic forcing from the wave along with an
approaching H8 baroclinic zone should lead to more redevelopment of
showers (30 to 50% chance over most of the area) and potentially a
storm or two, but again, limited instability is forecast. Showers
will linger for much of Thursday night (60 to 75% chance area) and
into Friday morning. Showers and any storms that develop could be
efficient rainfall producers, with model guidance indicating warm
cloud depths of 4,000 meters and PWATs of 1.9 to 2 inches: well
above the 90th percentile per SPC sounding climatology. The WPC
currently highlights areas south of Interstate 80 in a slight
risk for excessive rainfall Thursday into Friday morning.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Showers will be ongoing early Friday morning as continued lift from
the wave and H8 warm advection persist. By the time showers exit
Friday afternoon, total QPF beginning from Wednesday will range
from around 0.25 to 0.75 inches generally north of a line from
Columbus to Glenwood to Red Oak, IA. South of these areas,
expect totals of 1 to 1.5 inches, and a few spots in our far
southern areas near Beatrice and Fairbury could reach close to 2
inches.

Friday will also be the start to another warming trend which
lasts into early next week. 1000-500 mb thicknesses are progged
to expand over much of the central CONUS as the main H5 ridge
inches eastward and amplifies. Highs for the weekend climb to
the upper 90s to low 100s, cooling slightly to the 90s by Monday
and Tuesday. Heat Advisory criteria may be met on Sunday over
much of the area with guidance showing indices of 105 to 110 for
a large portion of the forecast area. A few waves may ride the
main periphery of the ridge and generate some scattered showers
and storms after Sunday, but chances remain low (<20%) at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

The first wave of morning showers is beginning to dissipate,
with wider coverage along with a rumble of thunder or two are
currently in place across central Nebraska. These showers are
expected to spread eastward over the course of the morning,
primarily affecting KOFK/KOMA and to a lesser extent KLNK, with
VFR conditions aside from the center of the strongest of the
showers where MVFR visibilities are possible. Winds are expected
to remain light through the day and generally be out of the
north, with wind directions wavering some due to the showers
that are anticipated. Most activity should be southeast of the
area by 00z this evening, resuming dry conditions.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Petersen