157
FXUS63 KOAX 201730
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1230 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers (60-80% chance) mostly north continuing into
  Monday.

- Cooler, cloudy conditions this week with the sun peeking out
  Tuesday-Wednesday. Highs in the 60s, lows in the upper 40s to
  mid 50s.

- Rain chances return Thursday continuing into the weekend with
  highs warming back into low 70s by Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Cloudy and cool conditions today with occasional showers more
likely over northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa. An
upper-level trough moving through is triggering these showers
with moisture pooling on the north side of a stationary boundary
stretching from southeast KS to western NY.

Cool and cloudy conditions will persist through Monday into at
least the first half of Tuesday when we start to see a ridge
build back up over the Central Plains. We may not see any
significant breaks in cloud cover until Wednesday though as we
don`t see the wind reversal back to southerly until Tuesday
night. A few showers will be possible overnight Tuesday night
into Wednesday as the 850-mb warm front moves through.

While southerly flow will help bring in slightly warmer
temperatures, we do see the LLJ return advecting in mid-level
moisture keeping us from clearing out completely. This will
temper the warming trend through the week, with highs starting
in the low 60s Monday, mid 60s Tuesday through Thursday, and
upper 60s to low 70s Friday and Saturday. The return of the LLJ
will also bring back shower and storm chances Thursday into the
weekend. Not seeing any signals for any periods of potential
severe weather at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

IFR conditions from this morning have improved as cigs have
lifted to 1100-1400ft across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
KOFK and areas north will likely stay lower due to incoming
showers from the west that may also periodically reduce
visibility. Expect cigs to lower again this evening with
widespread IFR conditions starting around 23-00Z. Cigs will
continue to gradually lower overnight with increasing periods of
drizzle/br and reduced visibility Expect LIFR conditions for a
period toward daybreak on Monday before cigs start to gradually
rise once more. Winds stay out of the north through the period,
mostly 10kt or less.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy