991
FXUS63 KOAX 180513
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1213 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms continue across far northeast Nebraska late tonight
  into early Friday morning. Most locations will see hot and
  humid conditions with partly cloudy skies throughout the
  majority of the day, Friday.

- More storms redevelop Friday afternoon and evening (40-50%
  chance). There is a 5% chance that some could be severe.
  Additional storm chances persist for much of the weekend
  through Monday with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Tonight through Friday Night...

A warm front will lift through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa
tonight, dragging warm moist air northward. Showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible north of this boundary overnight,
primarily over far northeast Nebraska into western Iowa. With
moisture pooling over the region, there remains at least some
potential for fog to redevelop tonight, primarily over northeast
Nebraska. However, this could very well be limited by southeasterly
surface winds blowing at 5-15 mph.

The good news is, most of Friday looks to be fairly dry, with
temperatures rising well into the 80s and lower 90s across the
region. However, with the warming temperatures comes increased risk
for strong to severe storms. By mid afternoon, 2000-3000 J/kg of
CAPE will settle into the mid Missouri Valley, ahead of a cold front
sweeping in from the west. Deep layer shear still doesn`t look that
impressive, at around 20-30 kts, but low level curvature in
hodographs is quite notable. Large scale forcing for ascent still
appears to be lacking, with the upper level short wave not expected
to arrive until late Friday night, but any remnant MCV from previous
overnight convection could provide some lift for storm development.
If surface based storms are able to develop, the main threats would
be damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.

Scattered shower and storm chances will continue through Friday
night, as a LLJ ramps up ahead of the cold front. While the bulk of
the severe threat should end shortly after sunset, a strong elevated
storm or two, capable for gusty winds and hail, can`t be ruled out.

Saturday and Beyond...

Off and on precipitation chances will continue through the middle of
next week, as a series of shortwaves approach from the west ahead of
the next upper level trough. The best chance for rain being Saturday
night into Sunday over far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

Cooler temperatures can be expected behind the front for the weekend
and into next week. Highs on Saturday will drop back to the 70s and
80s. By Sunday, most locations won`t make it out of the 60s. Crisp,
cooler fall temperatures continue through at least Wednesday, before
a ridge develops out west, and brings slightly warmer air back into
the central plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Ceiling restrictions have already begun building into the area,
some across northeast Nebraska near KOFK associated with
scattered showers while a bank of low clouds and some mist
extending from central Nebraska towards KLNK. At the moment,
shower chances look to be just to the northeast of the KOFK
area, with visibility restrictions not expected to impact the
terminal as they pass. MVFR then IFR conditions will become
increasingly widespread over the course of the overnight hours,
with easterly winds expected to turn southeasterly by sunrise
and increase in speed heading into the afternoon. Expect gusts
to 20 kts as winds turn southerly from 15z through 23z tomorrow
evening, with a wind shift beginning to move into the area from
the northwest at the end of the TAF period and just beyond.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Petersen