832
FXUS63 KOAX 011038
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
538 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localized flash flooding is possible this morning.

- Seasonably cool conditions will continue through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Early this morning through tonight:

A mesoscale vorticity maximum was evident in radar data over
Butler county as of 3 AM, with an associated zone of more
intense forcing for ascent focusing a band of moderate to heavy
rain across portions of Saunders, Seward, Lancaster and Saline
counties. The presence of a 20-25 kt low-level jet is enhancing
inflow of a weakly unstable, but very moist air mass into the
ongoing convection, with radar estimated rainfall approaching
4-5+" near the junction of Butler, Saunders, Lancaster, and
Seward counties. The 06z run of the HRRR maintains the
convective band in the same general area through sunrise, and as
such, a Flood Watch has been issued for those four counties, as
well as Saline County.

Precipitation is expected to taper off from north-to-south
today, with the potential for patchy fog developing tonight in
areas that see a decrease in cloud cover.

Tuesday into the weekend:

We`ll see warmer temperatures (highs in the 70s) on Tuesday
ahead of a cold front that is expected to move through the
Wednesday morning. the forecast will indicate 30-50% PoPs along
and behind the front on Wednesday, with highs in the 60s north
and 70s south. Another cold front is expected to follow on the
heels of the former; moving through the area on Thursday night.
The movement of those fronts through the area will lead to
continued cool conditions, with highs in the 60s and 70s from
Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Scattered to numerous showers ongoing as of 1030z are expected
to continue this morning before decreasing in areal coverage
this afternoon. Ceilings have recently oscillated in and around
the showers, with prevailing IFR conditions anticipated this
morning. By this afternoon into evening, guidance suggests that
ceiling heights should eventually increase to MVFR, with more
uncertainty as to whether VFR conditions develop tonight. If
clouds do decrease tonight, the potential will exist for fog
formation. East-southeast winds of 10-12 kt are expected today
before diminishing this evening.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ050-051-065-
     066-078.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead