825
FXUS63 KOAX 022055
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
355 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers or a storm are possible in Knox, Cedar, and
  Antelope county this evening.

- Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will move
  across the area late tonight through Wednesday. Rainfall
  totals will be light, and it should not be an all day
  rainout.

- Unseasonably cool weather will continue into early next week,
  with a few chances for showers/storms. Friday into Saturday
  morning looks to be the coolest period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Tuesday afternoon finds a cold front stretching from southwest
NE through extreme northeast SD, and advancing steadily
southeast. The front is moving into an environment with up to
1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and modest northwest to southeast wind
shear, but the mid level lapse rates are unimpressive and the
sub-LFC environment is not particularly conducive to easy
updraft intensification. Additionally, by the time the front
approaches Knox county in our coverage area, daytime heating
will be waning. So with all this in mind, could see a few
storms, but potential for anything severe is quite limited and
in the far northwestern part of the forecast area.

The front continues to move through the area overnight tonight,
but without much precipitation along it. Rather, as an upper jet
streak noses into the region late tonight into mid Wednesday
over a mid level thermal gradient, expect a zone of showers and
storms supported by the frontogenesis and jet streak in
conjunction with elevated instability. Again, severe storms are
unlikely, but could see a bit of lightning and perhaps some
small hail if a stronger updraft can sustain. The better chance
for strong storms will be farther south along the surface front
as it moves out of Nebraska and into Kansas during peak heating.

Thursday morning will be chilly as surface high pressure builds
directly over eastern NE and western IA. Could see some valley
fog at that time, and most lows should be in the 40s so not
looking at frost just yet. Another northwesterly flow storm
system dives across the Northern Plains late Thursday, bringing
another cold front. This system is compact but should be strong
enough to support precipitation along the front, although with a
better focus closer to the upper low to our northeast. Strong
cold advection will make Friday the coolest day of the week and
put lows in the 40s once again on Saturday morning.

Next week the upper pattern changes with a chance for precip
late Monday followed by a strong ensemble signal for ridging and
warming by mid week transitioning toward southwesterly flow by
the end of the week. This points to warmer temperatures overall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Scattered to broken cloud cover at TAF sites this afternoon with
occasional MVFR mainly at LNK. Cloud base heights should
increase to VFR within the next hour or two, and/or scatter out.
Otherwise, VFR with light winds expected through a majority of
the TAF period. -SHRA potential increases at OFK, and perhaps
into OMA by late in the TAF period. This may be accompanied by
some reduced ceilings, but for now appears more likely to be VFR
through 18Z. An overnight wind shift out of the north should
also help limit fog potential tonight, and have not included any
fog at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Barjenbruch