267
FXUS63 KOAX 251703
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1203 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wet weather continues into Thursday night, with multiple
  rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Flooding remains a
  concern, especially tonight in northeast Nebraska and west-
  central/northwest IA.

- Some severe weather is also possible this afternoon and
  evening in those same areas, with damaging winds being the
  primary hazard.

- Hot on Saturday, with precipitation chances returning late
  Saturday night into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Early this morning through tonight:

The progression of a low-amplitude disturbance through the central
High Plains has contributed to a large complex of showers and
thunderstorms across central and southern parts of NE into southwest
IA early this morning, amidst a seasonably moist air mass
characterized by precipitable water values of around 2". Latest CAM
output indicates that the ongoing convection will slowly drift north
through the pre-dawn hours, and eventually out of our area by mid to
late morning. The strongest storms will be capable of high rain
rates, so we`re monitoring for flash flood potential.

By this afternoon, the surface front, which has lingered in the area
over the past couple of days, is expected to lift into northeast NE.
That boundary in conjunction with forcing for ascent attendant to
another mid-level disturbance approaching the region from the
southwest will foster another round of thunderstorms that will
largely affect northeast NE and west-central IA this afternoon
through tonight. Several of the CAMs indicate a training
thunderstorm scenario, so we are particularly concerned about the
flash flood threat, and a flood watch may eventually be required.

In addition to the flooding threat, potential will exist for
isolated severe weather, owing to the presence of a moist and
moderately unstable air mass south of the front. Vertical shear is
expected to be slightly stronger than previous days, which may
support some storm organization, with the potential for damaging
winds of 60-70 mph, and perhaps hail approaching quarter size.

We`ll see a little more sunshine today, with highs in the mid 80s to
low 90s.


Thursday and Thursday night:

The mid-level disturbance mentioned above is forecast to phase with
a higher-latitude wave, with that consolidated system
progressing from the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley.
The passage of that system to the northeast will result in the
surface front advancing south into a broader portion of our area
by Thursday afternoon. That boundary will once again be the
focus for scattered thunderstorm development during the
afternoon into Thursday night. The front will be slow moving,
with the potential for backbuilding/training thunderstorms
capable of flooding rainfall. Isolated severe weather is also a
possibility.

Highs on Thursday will range from low/mid 80s north of the front to
upper 80s to around 90 south of it.


Friday and Saturday:

The models suggest the surface front could potential stall just
south of the area on Friday, prior to redeveloping to our north on
Saturday. The forecast will continue to indicate low PoPs along
the KS border on Friday, in closer proximity to the front, with
generally dry conditions elsewhere. Saturday looks like it will
be the hottest day since this past Sunday, with highs in the
low/mid 90s forecast. Heat indices could approach 100-105 at
some locations.


Sunday into early next week:

There has been a consistent model signal for a low-amplitude trough
to progress through the north-central CONUS on Sunday, with that
feature amplifying across the Great Lakes and OH Valley early next
week. The surface front associated with that system is expected to
move through the mid MO Valley Sunday and Sunday night, supporting
increasing shower and thunderstorm chances.

Near to slightly above-normal high temperatures in the mid 80s
to around 90 are forecast during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

VFR conditions are favored this afternoon and early evening
before a widespread line of thunderstorms develops across
northeast Nebraska and into west-central Iowa. Scattered showers
will be possible at KOFK through the afternoon, with low
confidence in coverage and amendments being made as needed.
Thunderstorm coverage will increase by 00Z at KOFK and continue
overnight. MVFR conditions are expected with the heaviest
rainfall later this evening and into tomorrow morning before
improving after sunrise. Storms are expected to remain north of
KOMA and KLNK, though a brief scattered shower or storm is
possible, particularly Thursday morning. Winds will primarily
remain out of the south-southwest at 10-12 kts with gusts of
18-20 kts, diminishing and becoming more variable overnight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Thursday
     afternoon for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042.
IA...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Thursday
     afternoon for IAZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Wood