593
FXUS63 KOAX 171756
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1156 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20-50% chance of rain Monday, alongside breezy winds out of
  the southeast gusting to 20-35 mph.

- Another storm system will move into the region Thursday
  through Friday, bringing a 20-50% chance for rain and possibly
  some snow heading into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Today through Tuesday...

Light southeasterly winds and patchy high clouds kept temperatures
limited to the 30s and 40s overnight. An upper low will move out of
the Wyoming/Colorado area into the Central Plains today. Strong warm
air advection ahead of this approaching system will continue to
bring increasing cloud cover to the region today, as moisture moves
in. Low level dryness may prove difficult to overcome initially, but
chances for light rain and drizzle reaching the surface will
increase throughout the day. As rain moves out late tonight, totals
will likely remain under 0.10", with highest amounts limited to
northeast Nebraska and western Iowa, along and north of a line from
Columbus, to Omaha, to Red Oak, IA.

In addition to the rain, southeasterly winds will increase through
the day, with speeds up to 20-35 mph possible. Temperatures will be
boosted with the warm southerly flow, yet still limited by the
persistent cloud cover, leaving afternoon highs ranging from the
upper 40s over northeast Nebraska to close to 60 near the
Nebraska/Kansas border.

Winds will weaken by early Tuesday morning, as they turn to the
north behind the passing cold front. A few sprinkles could persist
into the early morning hours on the back side of the low, however a
dry forecast is expected to prevail for the vast majority of the
day. Temperatures will again range from the upper 40s over northeast
Nebraska, to the 50s over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.
Overnight lows will hover just above freezing, in the mid to upper
30s both Monday and Tuesday nights.

Wednesday and Beyond...

Dry weather prevails through Wednesday and most of Thursday, ahead
of the next approaching low pressure system. A few showers could
sneak into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Thursday, before
precipitation begins to overspread the forecast area from the
south. While rain will likely be primary precipitation type
late this week and into the weekend, a few ensemble members
continue to hint at light snow mixing in on the backside of the
system Friday night.

Dry weather returns for the remainder of the weekend into early
next week. Daytime highs will remain in the 50s, however nights
will dip toward freezing, beginning Friday night and continuing
through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

MVFR cigs have expanded eastward to around KFET, currently
impacting KOFK and KLNK. Models keep the MVFR cigs west of KOMA,
but seeing current trends continuing to expand eastward closer
toward KOMA, went ahead and put in cigs around FL030 at KOMA
starting around 20Z. MVFR cigs will hold over the area until
around 00-01Z at KOMA and KLNK, and closer to 04Z at KOFK. A
cold front will move across the area shifting winds to
northwesterly overnight and bringing MVFR cigs back into
northeast Nebraska and KOFK early Tuesday. As of right now
there`s about a 20% chance MVFR cigs make it as far south as
KOMA and KLNK around 12Z, so keeping these out of the TAFs.
Expect MVFR cigs to hold through the remainder of the TAF period
over northeast Nebraska while VFR cigs hold at KOMA and KLNK
with winds staying out of the northwest.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...McCoy