496
FXUS63 KOAX 031735
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty showers and storms occurring this morning mainly over
  northeast Nebraska. Areas of repeated rounds of rain could see
  some localized flooding (5-10% chance).

- Near daily shower and storm chances (20-30% chance) will
  continue through the week, with the highest chances being each
  evening and overnight. Severe weather will be possible at
  times.

- Temperatures remain in the 70s and 80s through Sunday but a
  warming trend begins Monday with widespread 90s and heat
  indices approaching 100 by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Scattered showers and storms are starting to develop this
morning across central Nebraska and our far western counties as
the nocturnal low-level jet interacts with an approaching
shortwave. Model soundings indicate we have sufficient elevated
instability above 700-mb for high-based thunderstorms (~1000
J/kg), environmental shear is lacking for any organization of
storms (not expected to be severe). These storms will slowly
drift eastward through the morning, likely dissipating as the
low-level jet dies down and the shortwave tracks off to the
southeast. We will be watching through the morning hours for
slow-moving storms that could dump a good amount of rain over
localized areas, with some potential (15% chance) for flash
flooding. While models indicate storms will be decaying through
the late-morning hours, there is some indication we may see
another MCV linger across southeast Nebraska bringing potential
for a few scattered showers lingering into the afternoon. Better
chance, though, is that it primarily acts to keep cloud cover
across our area with little-to-no shower activity. With clouds
hanging around, we`ll see temperatures stay on the cooler side
again today with highs again in the 70s.

Out west today we`ll start to see the amplification of a new
upper-level ridge over the Four-Corners region, lending to an
increase in northwesterly flow aloft. This will set us up for a
warming trend next week as this ridge expands north and eastward
as well as set us up in a typical summertime nocturnal
thunderstorm/MCS pattern. We see this in the ensemble forecast
with chances for storms most nights through the end of the week
next week.

Tonight (Sunday night) kicks it off with a shortwave kicking
off showers and storms across western Nebraska during the
afternoon and bringing them east into our area for the
overnight hours. Better chances will be in northeast Nebraska as
remnants of the surface high off to the east continue to block
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa from the better chances
for storms. Showers may linger in northeast Nebraska through the
afternoon hours on Monday, but with the expansion of the upper-
level ridge eastward, expect the beginning of the warming trend
with highs on Monday back up around 80.

We actually get a break on Monday night as a shortwave trough
over the Inter-Mountain West pushes up a shortwave ridge across
the Central Plains on the northern periphery of the broader-
scale ridge over the Desert Southwest. This transient shortwave
ridge should provide enough subsidence to inhibit storm
development. With no overnight storm activity, however, means
clearer skies expected on Tuesday. This will allow temperatures
to continue to climb with highs back in the low-to-mid 80s
across our area.

Storm chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday as we see
another shortwave potentially trigger storms as it interacts
with the nocturnal low-level jet. Wednesday we see an increase
in the warm-air advection as the low-level jet pivots farther
east right over our area. This will bring afternoon highs into
the mid-80s to near 90.

Seasonably hot and humid conditions expected to hold going into
next weekend with additional nocturnal storm chances. Severe
weather will be possible at times, with NSSL`s Machine Learning
Algorithm indicating increasing potential going into the
weekend, peaking on Saturday with a 15-30% chance.

The pattern going forward will greatly depend on how an upper-
level trough moving into the Rocky Mountain Region interacts
with the blocking Ridge over the Desert Southwest. The Euro has
a stronger ridge in place holding up the eastward progression of
the trough and amplifying the ridge over the Central Plains over
the weekend while the GFS has the trough riding over the Ridge
and breaking it down. Confidence in the forecast next weekend
for this reason is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Showers will continue to exit/dissipate early in the period
with VFR conditions expected into the overnight hours with
perhaps some 3000 ft clouds approaching OFK. Winds will remain
southerly to southeasterly at 10-12 kts with a few gusts of
18-20 kts this afternoon, with speeds decreasing overnight.
Additional showers and storms are expected to develop in
northeast Nebraska overnight and push southeast through Monday
morning. Confidence in impacts at the TAF sites is low, so only
including -SHRA mention at OFK for now, but may need to
eventually add -TSRA there and at OMA and LNK (10-14Z
timeframe).

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...CA