603
FXUS63 KOAX 211646
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1146 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and drizzle linger this afternoon through Tuesday
  morning, with the low chance of rain (20-40%). Cool today in
  the 50s and 60s.

- Drier weather is expected Tuesday afternoon with highs in the
  60s, though low clouds linger.

- Temperatures in the 60s persist Wednesday through Friday
  before warming to the 70s next weekend. More rain chances
  (50-80%) during the second half of the week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A dreary morning and early afternoon starts the week with these
conditions lingering through the remainder of this afternoon
into tonight. These dreary conditions are the result of an
upper- level low pressure system moving across the area over a
cool moist airmass being advected in from near the Great Lakes.
Temperatures are currently in the upper 50s and lower 60s and
little warming is anticipated through the remainder of the
afternoon, resulting in cool highs. A cluster of showers is
currently moving through northeast Nebraska. These showers
should gradually weaken and dissipate this afternoon, but
additional isolated showers may develop across the area,
particularly over northeast Nebraska and west- central Iowa.
OVerall the chance of rain is low (20-40%). While the upper-
level low pressure system will move east of the region tonight,
lingering low-level moisture and low clouds may support patchy
fog or drizzle into Tuesday morning with temperatures cooling
into the 50s.

Tuesday afternoon sees drier conditions return to the area. While
temperatures remain cool with plenty of lingering clouds, no rain is
forecast. Temperatures may be a little warmer than today with highs
in the mid 60s for many. This drier weather is short-lived as our
next weather system will be fast approaching. By Wednesday morning,
warm advection is forecast to result in a low chance (20-40%) of
showers and thunderstorms across central Nebraska into western
portions of the area. This activity will wane after sunrise with
some dry conditions expected Wednesday afternoon. Highs will once
again remain in the 60s.

Rain chances increase on Thursday as our next weather system moves
into the region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated with a high chance (60-80%) of rain for almost the
entire area by weeks end. Despite the return of southeast winds,
continued clouds and rain keep temperatures cooler with highs in the
mid to upper 60s. Highs in the 70s may return by this weekend as
continued south winds and filtered sunshine allow for increased
warming. Rain chances (30-60%) remain in the forecast during the
weekend. A more significant weather system is currently forecast
early next week. This system may bring another round of rainfall,
potentially with significant accumulations, and drop highs back into
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

IFR conditions have improved to MVFR early this afternoon.
Ceilings are expected to remain primarily MVFR until later this
afternoon. Brief reductions may still occur. A few showers may
develop through the afternoon across the area, but aviation
impacts are low (30%). Later this evening into tonight, a push
of cool, moist air from the northeast will cause ceilings to
gradually fall. IFR conditions return from north to south late
this afternoon and evening. LIFR conditions are currently
expected later tonight with patchy fog or drizzle possible,
especially over northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa.
Visibility reductions should be limited. Light north to
northeast winds persist through the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Chehak