269
FXUS63 KOAX 191109
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
609 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and cloudy conditions expected today with additional
  showers and storms possible (30% chance) across extreme
  southeast NE and southwest IA this evening.

- Cooler conditions expected into the work week, with highs
  generally in the 60s and periodic precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Tonight and Saturday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this evening displays a
mid-level ridge centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley with
troughing moving into the Intermountain West. A shortwave
disturbance pushing the central/northern Plains has spun up a
surface low over western Nebraska earlier today. Through the day,
the low traversed eastward across the NE/SD border before progressing
into central Iowa by mid-day Saturday. The feature helped to pull a
warm front north into the area and allow high temperatures to climb
into the low to mid 90s today with dewpoints pulling into the low
70s.

Storm development occurred this evening along a surface trough
pushing into eastern Nebraska. While low-level hodographs remained
rather impressive thanks to the LLJ, weak deep layer shear (20-25
kts) limited storm organization. While model soundings exhibited
3000-3500 J/kg of MUCAPE, dry low-levels and capping limited the
amount of instability and low-level shear available to storm. With
this in mind, storms remained generally short-lived and prone to
isolated pockets of strong wind gusts (40-45 mph) as storms quickly
collapsed and allowed for some gusty winds.

A reinforcing cold front will sag southward behind the surface
trough tonight, helping to spark additional scattered thunderstorms
along and behind the front. Instability will taper off through the
overnight period, limiting additional potential for strong to severe
storms. Storm coverage will gradually decrease after daybreak, with
spotty rainfall totals approaching 0.50-1.00" under any heavier
overnight showers.

A much cooler post-frontal airmass will sink into the area on
Saturday behind the cold front, with high temperatures only expected
to peak in the low 70s across northeast Nebraska where thick cloud
cover remains in place. Highs are expected to increase into the mid
80s across southeast Nebraska and far southwest Iowa, where more
sunshine will be in place. Additional storm development is possible
Saturday evening along the front in extreme southeast NE and
southwest IA. However, model guidance continues to trend towards the
front being south of the NE/KS line before storms initiate, keeping
any additional storm chances capped around 30%.

Sunday and Beyond...

A chilly and damp start to the week is expected as another shortwave
disturbance pushes into the northern Plains and brings another shot
of cooler air and additional precipitation chances to the region.
High temperatures are expected to peak generally in the low 60s
Sunday through Tuesday, with periodic PoPs of 40-60%, particularly
Sunday into Monday. A break in precipitation chances is expected
Tuesday and Wednesday as transient, weak mid-level ridging slides
across the area between disturbances. Yet another shortwave
disturbances is expected to track into the area by Thursday,
bringing PoPs of 15-30%. Highs will remain in the 60s through much
of the work week, with a few spots reaching 70 by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Shower and storm coverage continues to shrink across eastern
Nebraska, with on remaining area of rain passing between KOFK
and KLNK, dodging any of the terminals. IFR ceilings are
forecast to stick around at KOFK through much of the period,
while KOMA/KLNK wait until 03z for ceilings to lower, worsening
to IFR conditions overnight. Winds are expected to remain out of
the north through the period, with speeds hovering around 10
kts. Additional shower and storm chances develop later this
afternoon, wafting near KLNK at 22-02z (40% chance) with
confidence needing to be a bit higher to include in the TAF.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Petersen