Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
321
FNUS73 KOAX 141652
FWSOAX
Spot Forecast for HNC Complex...Pottawattamie Conservation
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1052 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CST on November 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Today will see unseasonably warm temperatures reach the mid 70s
with an expected high around 75F. Breezy south winds between 10 to
15 mph are expected this afternoon with gusts as high as 20 to 25
mph. Relative humidity is expected to fall to around 40%. Low to
moderate fire danger is expected as a result. Mixing heights will
be modest, starting around 1000 ft and slowly increasing to nearly
2000 ft by mid-afternoon.
Saturday will see a cold front move through the region by mid-
morning. Breezy north winds are expected between 10 to 15 mph with
gusts as high as 20 to 25 mph once again. Slightly cooler
temperatures in the 60s are anticipated with a high temperature
around 66F. This will slightly improve minimum relative humidity
compared to Friday. Fire danger will be fairly with the slightly
improved conditions. Mixing heights will also become more
moderate. Mixing heights start low around 500 ft during the
morning, but increase to just above 3000 ft by mid-afternoon.
Strongest Possible Wind Speeds on Day of Burn: For today, the
strongest expected wind speeds will be out of the south between
20-25 mph and on Saturday will be from the north at 20 to 25 mph.
Lowest Possible Relative Humidity on Day of Burn: For today, the
minimum expected RH will be 37% and Saturday will be 41%.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 6 to 8 mph.
Surface winds (mph).South winds 10 to 13 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11700 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (21500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
GFDI................3.
TIME (CST) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2 3 4 7 17 4 9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............64 68 72 75 76 74 70
RH..............60 55 48 41 40 43 49
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..8 9 9 10 10 9 9
20 FT wind gust.10 10 14 14 16 14 14
Eye lvl wnd dir.S S S S S S S
Eye lvl wnd spd.6 7 7 8 8 7 7
Eye lvl wnd gst.8 8 11 11 12 11 10
Surface wnd dir.S S S S S S S
Surface wnd spd.10 11 11 13 13 11 11
Surface wnd gst.13 13 18 18 20 18 17
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.6
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.16 17 17 17 16 14 14
GFDI............2 3 4 4 4 4 3
SDspl kt-ft/100015 20 22 22 20 16 12
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........64 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the west
around 5 mph after 3 am.
Surface winds (mph).South winds around 10 mph shifting to the west
around 9 mph after 3 am.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 9 mph shifting to the west
around 7 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 17 mph shifting to the west
around 14 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5600 knot-ft).
GFDI................2.
TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........25 23 34 50 42 56 67 74 80 80 81 56
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............66 63 61 59 59 58 57 57 57 56 56 55
RH..............56 60 62 64 62 62 62 59 57 57 55 57
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW W
20 FT wind spd..8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.12 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 11
Eye lvl wnd dir.S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW W
Eye lvl wnd spd.6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8
Surface wnd dir.S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW W
Surface wnd spd.10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9
Surface wnd gst.15 15 16 16 16 15 15 14 14 14 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.S S S S SW SW SW SW SW W W W
Transp wind spd.16 16 16 16 17 16 16 16 14 14 14 14
GFDI............2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1
SDspl kt-ft/10008 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds up to 8 mph.
Surface winds (mph).North winds 8 to 13 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 13 to 21 mph increasing to 16 to 25 mph
in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (61100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
GFDI................3.
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........41 39 20 1 4 3 4 24 5 11 5 9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............53 53 53 56 60 63 65 67 67 67 65 62
RH..............59 57 61 57 53 50 46 43 43 43 46 52
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW N N N N N N N N
20 FT wind spd..7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 6
20 FT wind gust.11 12 13 13 14 16 16 16 14 14 12 10
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW NW NW NW N N N N N N N N
Eye lvl wnd spd.5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.8 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 11 11 9 7
Surface wnd dir.NW NW NW NW N N N N N N N N
Surface wnd spd.9 10 10 10 11 13 13 13 13 11 10 8
Surface wnd gst.14 15 16 16 18 20 20 20 18 18 15 12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.1 2.4 1.4
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW N N N N N N N N N
Transp wind spd.13 13 14 20 21 20 23 25 24 22 20 16
GFDI............1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 2
SDspl kt-ft/10006 7 9 15 25 38 48 57 61 58 43 23
$$
Forecaster...Chehak
Requested by...Aric Ping
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2525936.0/OAX
.DELDT 11/14/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL aric.ping@pottcounty-ia.gov