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FXUS64 KOHX 151133
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
633 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue through the
  week.

- Although the severe weather risk is low, heavy rainfall, gusty
  winds, and frequent lightning will be possible.

- Warming trend will take place this week as many locations will
  near or surpass 100F for heat indicies.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 501 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Today we aren`t under any severe storm risk, just general
thunderstorms only from the SPC. Storm chances have decreased
today, but aren`t entirely eradicated; we can still expect
isolated to scattered convection during peak-heating hours, but
less coverage than we`ve experienced on previous afternoons. A
surface boundary sits just to our north, so there are slightly
higher PoPs across northern Middle Tennessee than in areas farther
south. Otherwise, the surface ridge that was situated to our east
appears to have retrograded somewhat, so there is a little more
subsidence across the mid state today, despite the continued
presence of at least modest levels of instability and plenty of
available moisture. Afternoon heat index values are likely to top
out in the low 100s in most areas west of the Cumberland Plateau.
PoPs will increase again tomorrow as the surface ridge gets pushed
out of the way.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A summer like pattern has been set up over Middle TN and it looks
to stick around for awhile. We have weak zonal flow over the
northern US and this will keep much of the same weather for our
area. Patchy fog will be possible tonight especially for areas
that saw rainfall today. Then we will once again see scattered
showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon and continue
into the early evening. CAMs are showing activity a little less
widespread tomorrow with the better chances staying to our north
but still plan on hit and miss storms in the afternoon. It will be
a high CAPE low shear environment. The threat for severe storms
will be low but can`t rule out gusty winds with any of the
stronger updrafts. PWATs will remain high in the 1.60-2.0" range.
Given the slow storm motion and high PWATs localized flash
flooding will be possible with any of the strong longer lasting
cells. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with dew points in the
mid 70s, this will push afternoon heat index values to around or
just above 100.

Mainly dry conditions Tuesday night with lows once again in the
low to mid 70s. Not a lot of change in the forecast for Wednesday.
We will once again see scattered afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms. Similar to Tuesday the severe threat will be low
but heavy rain and maybe some gusty winds with any of the stronger
cells. Highs in the low to mid 90s with afternoon heat index
values between 100 and 105.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

As we head into the extended part of the forecast we will see very
little change. Summer like conditions remain in place. Daily
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue into the
weekend and next week. Weak troughing will develop over eastern
Canada over the weekend and that will help to bring some lower
heights and maybe knock a few degrees off of our highs, instead of
low to mid 90s we will see upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Most of the early morning radiation fog has dissipated, with only
some residual restrictions to visibility at KSRB, and that won`t
be for much longer. We do once again expect overnight fog at KCSV
and KSRB, which has been the way of things in our current air
mass. At any rate, the surface ridge that has been lined up to the
east of Middle Tennessee has retrograded so that there`s a little
more subsidence across the mid state, and therefore lower storm
chances. For now, we`ve left TS out of the TAFs. This could change
if convection develops near one of the terminals, so just know
that afternoon storms are still possible, just more isolated in
coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  75  95  76 /  30  20  40  20
Clarksville    91  74  92  76 /  40  20  40  10
Crossville     89  69  89  70 /  30  10  50  30
Columbia       93  72  93  74 /  20  10  30  20
Cookeville     89  72  91  72 /  30  10  50  20
Jamestown      89  70  90  71 /  40  20  60  30
Lawrenceburg   92  72  93  73 /  20  10  40  20
Murfreesboro   94  73  95  74 /  30  10  40  20
Waverly        91  73  92  74 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Rose