550
FXUS64 KOHX 040507
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1207 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1158 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Cloudy and cooler through Sunday with low to medium chances for
  showers Sunday along the Cumberland Plateau.

- Drier conditions are expected Monday through at least Friday
  with low rain chances returning next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Low stratus is blanketing Middle TN this evening and will continue
to do so through most of the day Sunday. Meanwhile, a stationary
boundary is draped to our south over central AL. Overall, a fairly
quiet night looks to be ahead with a low chance for rain across
southern Middle TN and the Plateau. Patchy fog is also possible
tonight into early Monday morning, particularly across the
Plateau. For Sunday, a shortwave moves through the area, and the
stationary boundary lifts north. This will cause scattered showers
with a low chance for a few thunderstorms across the southeast
part of the area, but no severe weather is expected. Cloud cover
will gradually clear from west to east, but it`ll still be a
cooler day with highs in the 70s to near 80.

A front then swings south through the area early Monday, ushering
in drier air. Monday will be a gorgeous day with highs in the 70s
to near 80 and mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A very quiet week is then upcoming. High temperatures will gradually
warm through the week with readings returning to the mid-80s. Low
temperatures will generally be in the upper-40s to mid-50s. No rain
in sight through at least Friday. More uncertainty in the forecast
for this weekend as models show a storm system approaching from the
west. This far out, confidence is low in any details. For now, it is
enough for low rain chances in the forecast late Saturday into
Sunday. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A stalled frontal zone south of TN was keeping areas of low
clouds, mist, and patchy drizzle over the region. Overnight
conditions will dip to mainly IFR/LIFR. The low clouds will be
slow to lift Sunday morning as a wave of light showers passes
southeast of BNA. Drier air from the north will start to erode
low clouds and bring improvement to VFR for CKV/BNA/MQY after
20Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  81  56  80 /  10  10   0   0
Clarksville    60  80  53  78 /  10  10   0   0
Crossville     61  74  50  74 /  20  40   0   0
Columbia       64  81  53  81 /  20  20   0   0
Cookeville     63  75  53  75 /  20  20   0   0
Jamestown      61  76  52  75 /  10  20   0   0
Lawrenceburg   64  79  54  80 /  30  40   0   0
Murfreesboro   64  81  54  81 /  20  20   0   0
Waverly        62  78  54  76 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....13