251
FXUS64 KOHX 141144
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
644 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

- Humid with medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms
  each day through the weekend. Greatest rain chances each
  afternoon and early evening.

- Generally low risk for severe weather, but some of the storms
  will contain torrential downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty
  winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

An upper-level trough continues to slowly track through the area
with this feature currently centered near SE MO and the
Mississippi River. This trough has kept scattered thunderstorms in
the area all day, and radar shows a decaying line of showers/storms
currently making their way through west TN. Do expect these
storms to continue to weaken as they approach the TN River, but
still won`t rule out isolated showers/storms overnight.

As the trough sticks around through the weekend, this will keep
daily scattered thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. Coverage
will be dirunally-driven meaning that greatest coverage is
expected during the afternoon and evening hours. There will be
plenty of instability with CAPE values around 1500 J/kg, but shear
and lapse rates will be lacking which keeps our severe weather
threat low. PWATs will be high though at around 1.75 to 2 inches.
So while organized severe weather is not expected either Saturday
or Sunday, the typical thunderstorm hazards of heavy rain,
frequent lightning, and gusty winds are all possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A break from this activity doesn`t look like it comes anytime soon
as a troughing pattern and plenty of moisture continues into next
week which keeps daily rounds of thunderstorms in the forecast
through at least Friday. Storms continue to be dirunally-driven
with highest storm chances each afternoon and evening. Still not
seeing any obvious signs for organized severe weather with weak
wind shear and poor lapse rates. But any pulse thunderstorm any
day will be capable of heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty
winds. A break from the persistent rain chances perhaps comes next
weekend as models are showing a strong ridge building over the
eastern US.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A low pressure system is near Middle TN today which is leading to
clouds and rain showers this morning; cigs are MVFR at most
terminals currently and this will continue for the majority of
the morning. SHRA will be the main theme for TAFs this afternoon,
though occasional TSRA is also expected. I stayed with PROB30s
for afternoon TSRA due to lower confidence in coverage of thunder
vs rain showers. Winds will remain SW at 5-8 kts through the day.

Convection should taper off after ~01z for BNA/MQY/CKV. It`ll
take a little longer to clear out at SRB and CSV. After that, IFR
cigs are looking increasingly likely for tonight, starting 05-06z
for eastern terminals, and 09-10z for BNA/MQY/CKV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  72  87  71 /  70  30  50  10
Clarksville    82  70  85  70 /  70  20  30  10
Crossville     80  65  79  66 /  80  50  60  30
Columbia       83  70  87  69 /  70  30  40  20
Cookeville     80  67  81  68 /  80  40  70  20
Jamestown      80  66  80  66 /  70  40  70  30
Lawrenceburg   82  69  86  68 /  70  40  50  20
Murfreesboro   85  70  86  69 /  70  40  50  20
Waverly        81  68  85  68 /  70  30  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Sizemore