462
FXUS64 KOHX 151742
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1242 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend, low chance for
  strong thunderstorms mainly from Nashville west Saturday evening
  into Saturday night.

- Temperatures will be above normal through the week, peaking in
  the mid 80s over the weekend.

- Cooler temperatures Sunday into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Quiet weather will continue for the start of the forecast period.
An upper level ridge is set up over the central part of the
country with a surface high over the Great Lakes. That will bring
another day of mostly clear skies and warm highs in the mid 70s
to lower 80s. The upper level ridge and surface high start to push
east on Thursday keeping conditions quiet for us and bringing
little change in the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

We will get to enjoy one more quiet day on Friday before a cold
front brings more active weather. The upper level ridge will
start to push off to our east Friday into Saturday morning.
Southerly flow will bring slightly warmer temperatures on Friday
with upper 70s to mid 80s. Higher dew points will also start to
build north with them pushing into the mid 50s to around 60.

Things are going to become more active on Saturday as a trough
currently over Great Basin lifts into Canada pushing a cold front
south over the Plains into Middle TN. A surface low will deepen
to our north resulting in deep layer shear of 35-45 knots by the
evening and dew points pushing into the low to mid 60s. The
latest ensembles are more aggressive with a low level jet of 30-45
knots developing during the evening pushing 0-1 km shear from
around 10 knots in the afternoon to 25-35 knots in the evening.
There is still a lot of time for this timing to change but
ensembles are in better agreement on timing today with a line of
showers and thunderstorms moving into the west during the evening
and reaching the Nashville area 10-1 AM and then pushing east
during the overnight. There is still a lot of uncertainty on how
much instability we will see ahead of the approaching cold front.
This will be the big question mark on if we see strong
thunderstorms. Right now it looks like a 35-50% chance of seeing
CAPE of 250 j/kg or higher during the evening from Nashville west
with the highest probabilities near the TN River. Given the amount
of shear 250 j/kg should be enough CAPE to at least see a low
chance for a strong storm or two. Wind would be the primary hazard
but given the low level wind profiles and shear can`t rule out a
tornado threat either. It is still somewhat far out and there is
still uncertainties with this event and you will likely see timing
and threats change some as we get closer to the event.

Showers will linger over eastern areas into Sunday afternoon as
the cold front continues to work east through the region. After
seeing highs in the low to mid 80s on Saturday we will see a big
cool down Sunday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Weak
ridging builds over the area on Monday and Tuesday and that will
bring dry conditions with warming temperatures. We will see highs
push back into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

VFR conditions continue across Middle TN with NE winds at 5-10 kts
this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      57  81  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    56  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     50  72  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       56  81  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     53  74  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      50  71  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   54  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   56  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        57  80  52  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Sizemore