865
FXUS64 KOHX 021107
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
607 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 603 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

- Low to medium rain chances in the forecast through Thursday. Severe
  weather is not expected.

- Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s for highs through the forecast
  period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Clouds continue to be present after the shower activity died off
tonight. There`s plenty of moisture in the area that will stick
around through mid-week, meaning more rain chances to come. Tuesday
into Wednesday still looks to be the best chance for rain, with the
NBM showing a medium chance of a tenth on an inch (50 - 70%) and a
low to medium (30 - 40%) chance of half an inch. Judging from the
showers today that produced over an inch of rain in some locations,
I would say this is underestimating the moisture available to these
showers and storms. I would not be surprised to see more 1 - 2" plus
accumulations by mid-week.

As for temperatures, won`t be as cool tonight as last night. Only
dipping into the low to mid 60s tonight, with highs on Tuesday in
the mid to upper 70s on the Cumberland Plateau to the mid 80s
further west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Thursday brings another opportunity for low to medium rain chances,
as a cold front makes its way through the area. After that, things
dry out thanks to the drier air behind that front and a secondary
cold front guidance shows coming through Friday night. Temperatures
look to stay in the upper 70s to mid 80s through the work week,
adding to days with below normal temperatures for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Patchy fog this morning is resulting in MVFR visibilities across
portions of southern and eastern Middle TN, including at SRB.
Conditions will improve back to VFR by 13Z to 14Z. Main aviation
concern thereafter will be shower and thunderstorm activity
through the afternoon. Isolated activity is already developing
across the area, but coverage will become scattered by late
morning and into the early afternoon. Probabilities in impacts are
highest at BNA, CKV, and MQY where a PROB30 group remains for best
timing potential. Storm coverage will likely taper off between 00Z
and 02Z. Otherwise, winds will generally be southerly at 5-10
knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      86  64  87  66 /  60  40  20  30
Clarksville    88  61  88  64 /  50  30  10  40
Crossville     75  58  77  60 /  30  50  40  20
Columbia       85  62  86  65 /  60  40  20  20
Cookeville     79  59  80  61 /  40  50  30  30
Jamestown      77  58  78  61 /  50  50  40  20
Lawrenceburg   82  60  84  63 /  60  50  20  20
Murfreesboro   84  62  86  64 /  50  50  20  20
Waverly        87  60  87  63 /  50  40  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Clements