822
FXUS64 KOHX 170547
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1247 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms continue to be the pattern for the
  upcoming week with low chances of severe weather and medium
  chances of flash flooding.

- Summer-like heat and drier weather makes an appearance across
  Middle Tennessee for next weekend. Heat indices climb to 100
  degrees Saturday through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Water vapor imagery this evening shows an upper-level trough
starting to move through the Midwest and will continue to track east
through the area into Tuesday. There is an abundant amount of
moisture present with the PWAT on this evening`s sounding coming in
at an impressive 1.97 inches. That`s well above the 90th
percentile for the date, but does fall short of a daily record.
While today`s thunderstorm activity is tapering off, isolated
showers will likely continue overnight due to this moisture and
the trough swinging through the area. But thunderstorm coverage
will increase again Tuesday morning and into the afternoon hours.
With plenty of instability and PWATs remaining near 2 inches,
heavy rain continues to be the primary threat with stronger
thunderstorms. And after days of rainfall, a flooding threat
remains due to already saturated soils. Fortunately, with the
trough moving through the area, storm motions should be quick
enough to prevent slow-moving/stationary storms exacerbating the
flood threat. Similar to the past several days, coverage will
trend down after sunset with isolated activity likely continuing
through the overnight hours.

The trough exits the area late Tuesday, but plenty of moisture
sticks around into Wednesday to lead to more scattered
thunderstorms. The primary threat heading into Wednesday continues
to be heavy rain and flooding. Especially since steering flow is
weak on Wednesday with no upper-level support, and slow storm
motions will increase the flooding threat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

One more active wave is expected Wednesday night and into Thursday
as another upper-level trough tracks through the Midwest, sending a
front through the area. PWATs remain high at around 1.75", and along
and ahead of this boundary will be slightly better wind shear and
lapse rates. This supports a low severe weather threat Wednesday
night and into early Thursday where the main threat would be
strong to damaging winds. The current SPC Outlook (at the time of
this writing) has almost all of Middle TN in a marginal risk.

A break from the daily rain chances arrives Friday and into the
weekend, but it comes at a price. And fittingly so as the first
official day of summer is Friday. A strong area of high pressure
builds over the SE US through the weekend. This suppresses our
rain chances, but sends temperatures soaring. Highs will warm into
the upper-80s along the Plateau and into the mid-90s west of it.
It unfortunately will be humid, too, which sends heat index values
into the upper-90s and even into the triple digits. If you have
outdoor plans this weekend, be sure to stay hydrated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR conditions are currently in place, however, a large area of
MVFR cigs are noted downstream on satellite and will be gradually
building in from the west-southwest overnight. MVFR cigs are in
the taf starting after 10Z. Patchy light showers and localized
patchy fog will be around through the overnight hours. As we move
into the afternoon, additional rain and thunderstorm activity
will develop. Latest guidance is suggesting that activity will be
more widespread during the afternoon, but confidence is low in
the exact location of storm development, thus PROB30 groups are in
the taf at each terminal to capture this uncertainty.

Winds will remain southerly through the period with sustained
speeds increasing to 10-12 kts later this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      83  73  89  74 /  90  40  40  50
Clarksville    81  73  89  73 /  90  30  50  60
Crossville     81  67  83  68 /  90  70  70  50
Columbia       83  71  89  72 /  90  40  20  50
Cookeville     82  68  84  70 /  90  60  60  50
Jamestown      82  67  84  68 /  90  70  60  50
Lawrenceburg   83  70  88  71 /  90  40  20  50
Murfreesboro   85  71  90  72 /  90  40  40  50
Waverly        81  71  88  70 /  90  30  40  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Baggett