940
FXUS64 KOHX 262314
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
514 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 510 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

- Cooler temperatures persist through Thanksgiving with highs in
  the 40s and lows in the upper-teens to mid-20s.

- High rain chances return this weekend with slightly warmer
  temperatures. Precipitation chances persist into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1013 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

A cold front has cleared the area, and temperatures are noticeably
cooler than this time yesterday with current readings in the upper-
40s to low-50s. Behind the front, northwesterly winds are breezy
with gusts of 20 to 30 mph, helping it feel cooler despite the sun.
Temperatures will continue to fall tonight with lows near the
freezing mark, and these colder temperatures will stick around
through Thanksgiving Day. Highs for the holiday will only be in the
40s. While not as breezy compared to today, wind gusts of 15 to 20
mph will persist through Thursday afternoon. All in all though,
it`ll be a pretty nice holiday with plenty of sunshine and dry
conditions. But before you head out for any post-dinner activities,
bundle up! With mostly clear skies, our coldest period of this
forecast will come Thursday night and into Friday morning with lows
in the upper-teens to mid-20s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1013 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Calm weather continues into Friday, but it`ll remain cool as our
highs stay in the 40s. Temperatures will warm a few degrees this
weekend as surface pressure heights rise. Meanwhile, an upper-level
trough will be taking shape to our west, and as it approaches,
surface winds and flow aloft will become southerly which allows
for moisture advection into our area. The upper-level trough
tracks through the Ohio River Valley late Saturday and into
Sunday, increasing our own rain chances during this time. The NBM
maintains high rain chances (60-80%) through Sunday before the
trough exits to the east. Rain amounts continue to trend down with
new model runs with ensembles giving a low chance (10-20%) that
rain amounts exceed 1 inch by Monday morning.

A cold front will move through late Sunday and into Monday, bringing
another shot of cold air as we start the month of December. From
here, models and ensembles are in good agreement that a troughing
pattern will persist into next week although they disagree on
placement and how any system tracks through the eastern CONUS. At
any rate, it does look like next week will stay active maintaining
medium (30-60%) chances for precipitation Monday through at least
the middle of next week. Something else to watch closely will be
the potential for wintry precipitation. Models have trended cooler
next week, and depending on timing of precipitation, this could
have implications on what type of precipitation we get. At this
point, don`t think it`s anything to get too worried about.
Ensembles give us about a 10% chance for anything more than a
dusting of snow, but of course, stay tuned as the forecast
continues to get refined.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions persist this taf cycle. A deck of high clouds will
lead to OVC cloud coverage tonight and through the overnight
hours. SKC conditions return late Thursday morning. Northwesterly
winds prevail with sustained speeds relaxing between 3-5 kts
tonight and increasing back to 9-12 kts tomorrow morning with
gusts to 20 kts possible through the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      35  48  27  45 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    32  46  24  43 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     28  41  21  37 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       34  49  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     31  43  22  38 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      30  41  22  37 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   33  48  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   34  47  24  43 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        33  46  26  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Baggett