546
FXUS64 KOHX 251117
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
517 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 510 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms expected through this afternoon. A
  strong storm or two is possible this afternoon, but the severe
  weather threat is very low.

- Low to medium chance for non-thunderstorm wind gusts of 30-40
  mph through noon.

- Expect drier and much cooler weather Wednesday through Friday
  with widespread sub-freezing temperatures Wednesday and Thursday
  nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Widespread stratiform rain overspreads the majority of the CWA
tonight with the approach of a deepening surface low. Very, very
low chance of thunder overnight due to limited instability. The
primary concern as we head into the overnight hours will be the
potential for strong non-thunderstorm winds. We`ve been monitoring
the low out west this evening, and instances of 40 mph gusts have
been observed behind the rain. A strengthening low-level jet
between 40-50 kts will push into the area as the shortwave
approaches, but the timing of this deep llj arrival is what causes
the shaky confidence. Mixing is not great at night, and we have
rain in the area, making it even more difficult for these winds to
mix down to the surface. If the rain breaks enough, it`s possible
we experience gusts up to 40 mph, if not a touch higher.
Regardless, even if these winds don`t fully mix down, it will
still be noticeably breezy overnight with gusts up to 30 mph
likely, so if you haven`t already, now is the time to secure any
loose outdoor items. Breezy conditions will continue through early
afternoon.

In terms of severe potential for tomorrow, the threat remains low
and mostly confined to the south and eastern portions of the CWA.
The better instability will be situated to our south, but the
latest HRRR is trying to initialize a line of storms during the
afternoon with instability values around 500 J/kg. Note that most
of this instability is elevated with only 100 or so joules at the
surface, but with ample shear in place, can`t rule out a strong
storm or two. Activity will wane after sunset and lows will drop
into the 40s.

A stark airmass change is in place following the passage of
this system as temperatures will take a nearly 20-degree drop
between Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday looks dry, breezy, and
cool with temperatures in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1112 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Thanksgiving Day is shaping up to be quite cool and breezy with
highs only reaching into the 40s and lows in the low to mid 20s
with teens possible across the Cumberland Plateau. Be sure to
dress warm! A pattern shift will occur as we head into the weekend
with a longwave trough overstretching the majority of the country
and a subtle ridge slipping over the southeast. Locally, this
will result in slightly warmer temperatures with highs this
weekend in the 50 and overnight lows in the 30s to 40s. Our upper
air pattern will transition to a more progressive one, resulting
in an increase in rain chances by Sunday that will carry into the
first week of December.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Showers have been ongoing through most of the night, but cats have
remained mainly VFR. This is going to change over the next several
hours as MVFR cigs start to make their way across all mid-state
terminals this morning. These will likely stick around until about
23Z where VFR will return for a short time before additional MVFR
and some IFR (CSV/SRB) cigs return for the overnight period.

Gusty south winds will continue to blow 20-25 kts until 17-18Z
when winds will shift to the west and relax to 10 kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  46  54  33 /  90  10   0   0
Clarksville    68  42  51  31 /  80  10   0   0
Crossville     64  43  53  26 / 100  60  10   0
Columbia       72  45  54  31 /  90  10   0   0
Cookeville     67  45  54  29 / 100  40   0   0
Jamestown      66  44  53  29 /  90  60   0   0
Lawrenceburg   72  46  55  31 /  90  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   72  46  56  31 /  90  10   0   0
Waverly        67  40  50  31 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Unger