664
FXUS64 KOHX 112304
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
504 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 502 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

- Temperatures will rebound quickly this week with highs
  returning to the 60s and 70s by Friday.

- Dry through the end of this week. There is a low 20-30% chance
  of rain and storms late weekend.

- Unsettled, wet weather is in store next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1016 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

A frigid start to this Veterans Day. Some of the lowest
temperatures felt this morning include 14F in Monterey, 17F in
Woodbury, and 19F in Bethpage just to name a few. Low to mid
teens were common, especially over areas that received measurable
snowfall yesterday. Though it`s still quite cool out, temperatures
have warmed above freezing for the majority of Middle TN under
mostly clear skies. A continued warming trend will ensue as
southwesterly gradient winds increase this afternoon, pulling in
warmer air. A building area of high pressure centered over the
southeast will keep winds on the gustier side today with gusts up
to 30 mph through this evening. Though it will be cool again
tonight with lows in the 30s, winds will remain sustained between
10-15 mph overnight, mitigating any frost or fog development. The
warmup will truly be felt Wednesday as the surface ridge expands
north, giving us full sun with afternoon highs in the low 50s /
mid 60s; a stark contrast to the last 48 hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1016 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

A building upper ridge resulting in dominating high pressure will
keep our weather quiet with continued warmth through the majority
of this week. We will see a slight increase in moisture and a
more considerable increase in temperatures by Friday as we ride
the outer rim of the eastward-bulding ridge that will push an
expansive warm front through the area. Temperatures Friday are
slated to reach into the low to mid 70s east of the Cumberland
Plateau, and even warmer by Saturday. Models are still hinting at
our next chance for rain and storms perhaps occuring this weekend,
though disagreement remains amongst the upper air patterns
between the various models. The NBM has maintained a low chance
around 20% for rain late Saturday night with higher chances closer
to 40% by Sunday. The signal for an unsettled, wet week remains
as we move into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR flight conditions persist through the TAF period. Gusty winds
of 15-25 knots will decrease after 03-06z with the sustained
winds dropping down to 5-10 knots. 30-45 knots 2000 foot winds
will remain overnight, therefore, a period of LLWS was included
at all of the TAF sites. Surface winds will increase to around 10
knots again after 12-14Z with gusts up to 20 knots after 15z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      39  65  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    39  64  36  64 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     33  56  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       38  66  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     34  59  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      34  56  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   37  65  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   37  64  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        38  63  38  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Clements