957
FXUS64 KOHX 040055
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
655 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Rain chances return Thursday night. There is a low chance of a
  wintry mix across Middle TN Friday morning. This will need to be
  monitored closely as there`s a 25-30% chance of accumulating
  ice on the Cumberland Plateau.

- Temperatures recover quickly Friday morning to limit any
  accumulating ice impacts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

High clouds have overtaken Middle TN tonight and temperatures are
running about 5 degrees warmer than what guidance suggested for
this time. Most of Middle TN is sitting right around the freezing
mark with lows anticipated to bottom out in the upper 20s to low
30s, so pretty close to what it feels like outside right now. With
this increase in cloud cover and a more substantial cloud deck
noted over west TN, fog appears unlikely tonight.

We will get into all of the winter weather details for Thursday
night in a few hours with the main package, but I wanted to
highlight a feature a few CAMs have been tossing out. There will
be a very narrow window of time just before sunrise tomorrow
morning that a cold rain could mix with some wintry precip across
our southern counties. The band of showers appears quite small and
looks like it will move quickly, but with temperatures below
freezing during that time, there could be some ice mixing in with
the rain. The probability of this rain/mix occuring is very low,
around 15%, but just in case it does, didn`t want you to be caught
off guard. With how little is expected, impacts are not expected
with that round, if that`s even what you`d call it. The primary
concern for impacts will be with the main system Thursday
night/Friday morning. More details to come in a few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1237 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Update...

So much for the clouds! Clouds have quickly eroded over the last
two hours after every ounce of guidance suggesting they were going
to stick around. Temperatures are still going to run cool this
afternoon even with sun making a return. Have updated the grids to
reflect this. This may also open the door for more fog tonight as
grounds are still pretty saturated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1034 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

The biggest story with this forecast package is shaping up to be the
previously mentioned system tomorrow night. It still looks like the
setup is one of an overrunning scenario where rain and warm air
aloft moves in from the south and precipitates into a cold surface
layer. Now, there`s a LOT of things that will go into this,
including wetbulb temperatures, surface temperatures and how intense
the rain is that decides whether we get freezing rain out of
tomorrow night`s system. As of right now, probabilities of
getting a few hundredths of freezing rain tomorrow night stand at
25-30% on the Cumberland Plateau and 10-15% elsewhere across
Middle TN. While that doesn`t seem like a great chance, those
numbers have ticked up 10-15% in this morning`s NBM/LREF suite.
We`ll get into HREF territory later today, but let it be said one
of its members (HRRR) is showing a little less than a tenth of an
inch of ice on the Cumberland Plateau tomorrow night. For now,
we`ll highlight the highest probability is a cold rain, but there
is a low risk of a swath of mixed wintry precipitation somewhere
in Middle TN.

Precipitation in whatever form it ends up being should be out of
here mid-morning on Friday and while there might be some clearing of
these clouds Friday afternoon, our next weather system will likely
push additional (or continued) cloud cover into the mid-state
Saturday and rain chances Saturday night right into Sunday. The NBM
is showing these rain chances as low due to inconsistencies from
model to model, so this will likely have to be revisited a couple of
times over the next few days. In either scenario, temperatures
through this forecast will remain several degrees below normal for
this time of the year. After the Saturday night/Sunday rain chances,
we should dry out for a couple of days before another system enters
the picture mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

VFR conditions prevail through this evening as mid to high-level
clouds stream into Middle TN. Guidance does show a swath of low
clouds moving into northwest Middle TN tonight and moving as far
east as BNA and MQY. So did introduce MVFR cigs tonight at CKV,
BNA, and MQY. These clouds are expected to retreat to the west,
bringing VFR conditions back to BNA and MQY by late morning.
However, CKV will likely remain MVFR through the TAF period.
Precipitation chances will increase after 00Z tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      30  44  33  46 /   0  20  70  30
Clarksville    26  39  28  43 /   0  10  50  20
Crossville     26  43  31  42 /   0  10  80  60
Columbia       28  44  33  47 /   0  20  80  30
Cookeville     27  42  32  43 /   0  10  80  50
Jamestown      26  42  30  42 /   0  10  70  60
Lawrenceburg   28  45  33  46 /  10  30  80  40
Murfreesboro   27  44  33  46 /   0  20  70  40
Waverly        28  40  28  44 /   0  10  60  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Clements