631
FXUS64 KOHX 021731
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1231 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

- Below normal temperatures continue with afternoon highs in the
  80s continues through the middle of next week.

- Most of Middle TN will see drier weather this afternoon with
  low to medium rain chances remaining for areas along the
  Plateau. Higher rain chances (50-70%) return Sunday.

- Severe thunderstorm threat is very low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1052 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

What an early August morning! Temperatures are still in the 70s at
this hour with the eastern third of the area still pretty cloudy.
Some scattered showers have developed in East Tennessee and more
activity is expected to develop along the eastern slopes of the
plateau this afternoon. Some of that activity may impact the eastern
counties of our CWA. For the rest of the area, we`ll remain dry
with highs in the low to mid 80s. Sunday will be cooler, but we
will see more shower and storm coverage as an inverted surface
trough develops as a shortwave moves through the area. Expect more
clouds and temperatures topping out in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1052 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

The upper air pattern will remain wavy to start the next work week.
Some scattered storms will be around Monday afternoon, but it
will be less widespread compared to Sunday as we`ll be between
troughs. Rain and storm chances will increase on Tuesday as
another trough approaches the area. This troughing will be slow to
move through the area, so higher PoPs will remain in the forecast
for Wednesday. The trough weakens in place as we move into
Thursday so rain chances will decrease but not completely be gone
for Thursday and Friday. As far as temperatures in the extended,
we`ll keep the highs in the 80s likely through Friday with the
troughy pattern. Temperatures look like they`ll start to creep
into the lower 90s as we get into next weekend. Remember folks, it
is early August.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

MVFR cloud deck continues to impact KCSV/KSRB, and has moved
westward to KBNA/KMQY. Models have the cloud deck moving back east
to bring VFR conditions, but still have MVFR cigs at those
terminals for now. Rain chances increase overnight, along with
lowering ceilings, and KCSV/KSRB could see IFR and even LIFR
cigs/vis after 06Z. Showers/storms look to move in across the area
by sunrise, and the best chances for terminal impacts after 12Z.
Northeast winds around 5 to 10 knots will be light and variable
overnight, becoming southeasterly after 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      69  82  68  85 /  20  50  50  30
Clarksville    65  83  67  84 /   0  30  30  30
Crossville     65  73  61  77 /  60  80  30  40
Columbia       68  80  65  82 /  10  50  20  30
Cookeville     66  76  64  80 /  50  80  30  40
Jamestown      65  75  62  79 /  50  80  40  40
Lawrenceburg   67  80  64  79 /  10  40  10  30
Murfreesboro   69  80  66  83 /  30  60  40  30
Waverly        65  82  64  81 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Barnwell