245
FXUS64 KOHX 221652
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1052 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1048 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday. Low
  chance for severe storms.

- Dry weather Wednesday through the late weekend.

- Temperatures turn cold Wednesday night, ahead of Thanksgiving
  Day. High chance (80-95%) for temperatures to reach 30 degrees
  or less by Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 931 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Showers and thunderstorms moved out of Middle late last night,
making way for a pleasant partly to mostly sunny morning. That
said, a frontal boundary is pushing south into TN late this
morning and is increasing cloud cover over the mid state.
Satellite imagery shows the backside of the boundary passing
through northern KY at time of writing. Thinking that cloud cover
will generally remain mostly cloudy today as the front continues
to slide south. Mostly sunny skies develop by Sunday afternoon.

Dry weather is anticipated today through Sunday as a mid-level
ridge build to our west and shift east over TN through Monday.
This ridge will be fairly transient though as a trough moves
through Monday night through the end of the week bringing showers
an thunderstorms back for early next week.

Temperatures remain mild with yesterday (Friday) seeing 12 degrees
above normal temperatures during the afternoon and 22 degrees
above normal for overnight lows. Today and Sunday will be similar
as highs remaining mostly in the 60s and even some counties south
of I-40 seeing low 70s again this afternoon. Overnight lows will
be cooler than our last few previous days, falling into the 40s
and even into the upper 30s across the Upper Cumberland Sunday
night, thanks to the additional cloud clearing on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 931 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

As mentioned above, our next round of showers and thunderstorms
move through Monday night and Tuesday as a mid-level trough and
associated cold front move through. Have been tracking this set
up for the past couple of days, and still not overly concerned for
any severe weather at this time. Looking very similar to what we
saw this week, high shear/low CAPE and weak lapse rates type of
environment. The cold front looks to exit the mid state by late
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, just in time for
Thanksgiving Day as Wednesday night lows drop into the 20s and
30s. This ushers in our next pattern change as more dry, arctic
air spills into the U.S. Highs come Thanksgiving Day only reach
into the upper 40s to low 50s while overnight temperatures drop
further into the mid to upper 20s. By the end of the weekend,
temperatures begin to warm through next week with returning rain
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

TAFs reflect prevailing MVFR cigs across most Middle TN airports
through the remainder of this afternoon. Winds are NW at 5-8 kts.
Cigs should favor MVFR through tonight, though I`ve added IFR
cigs to SRB and CSV, and there could be a few lower clouds near
BNA/MQY. Ceiling improvement is forecast mid tomorrow morning
with a trend back to VFR conditions by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  46  65  43 /  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    65  43  63  42 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     67  42  61  37 /  20   0   0   0
Columbia       72  46  66  41 /  10   0   0   0
Cookeville     67  44  62  39 /  20   0   0   0
Jamestown      65  43  60  37 /  20   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   73  46  65  41 /  10   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   71  45  64  40 /  10   0   0   0
Waverly        65  43  64  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Sizemore