119
FXUS64 KOHX 301746
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1146 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Our precipitation chances will resume Monday afternoon and will
  continue into Tuesday. Storm total QPF values range from 0.5" to
  1" across Middle Tennessee.

- There are low to medium chances for light snowfall accumulations
  mainly north of I-40 Monday night and early Tuesday, especially
  northwest Middle Tennessee. Chances for 1" or greater
  accumulation are very low (<20%) at this time.

- Temperatures will remain below seasonal norms for the next
  several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 928 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A cold front is currently making its way across Middle Tennessee,
having already cleared the Nashville Metro Area but still west of
the Cumberland Plateu. There are a few light echoes showing up on
radar, and some patchy drizzle (mainly ahead of the boundary)
that isn`t showing up. Post-frontal temperatures have dropped
agonizingly close to freezing, and are lagging behind the
previous hourly grids. So, I`ve re-populated with the most recent
(14Z) CONSShort, which seems much more representative, and lowered
our daytime maximum temperatures accordingly. We can expect
partial clearing in some locations later this afternoon, but we
won`t get much of a break, because the next active weather system
will begin spreading precipitation into Middle Tennessee tomorrow
afternoon as an inverted trough, attached to a surface low moving
onshore from the Gulf, develops over the region. Meanwhile,
overnight lows tonight will drop into the 20s areawide, but we`ll
at least warm into the 40s by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1032 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The aforementioned surface low is expected to race from near MOB
at 06Z Tuesday to near Cape Hatteras 9 hours later. The low track
will be far enough south and east of Middle Tennessee that
sufficient cold air should enable at least light snowfall
accumulations across northern portions of Middle Tennessee, and
especially our northwest (i.e., Clarksville, Waverly, Dover)
Monday night and Tuesday morning. However, the probability of
measuring an inch or more is very low (<20%). Therefore, at this
time, we do not anticipate having to issue any advisories for
wintry precipitation. Due to the speed of the surface low, our
rain chances should all be gone by 18Z Tuesday, and high pressure
will then dominate the middle part of next week, although
temperatures are likely to remain below seasonal norms throughout
the 7-day forecast period. The next active weather system looks to
bring precipitation to the mid state Thursday night and Friday,
and an early look into that portion of the forecast suggests that
we may start off with more wintry precipitation late Thursday
night and early Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Tracking a line of clearing on satellite imagery which is right
over BNA as I`m writing this. Thus, BNA is mainly a VFR wind
forecast, though some scattered clouds 020-030 are possible
through the afternoon (an MVFR ob cannot be ruled out).

Meanwhile, IFR is still in place at SRB/CSV and will likely
persist through much of the afternoon. Eventually cloud cover will
improve across these eastern airfields, ~22z at SRB and ~00z at
CSV. Winds prevail NW today at 5-10 kts, becoming NE to E
tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      44  25  47  32 /  20   0  50 100
Clarksville    38  22  43  29 /   0   0  40 100
Crossville     40  20  46  31 /  30   0  50 100
Columbia       43  24  46  32 /  10   0  60 100
Cookeville     41  22  48  32 /  30   0  50 100
Jamestown      40  21  47  31 /  30   0  40 100
Lawrenceburg   43  23  47  32 /  20   0  70 100
Murfreesboro   44  23  48  32 /  20   0  60 100
Waverly        39  22  42  28 /   0   0  50 100

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Sizemore