666
FXUS64 KOHX 060449
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1049 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1045 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Low to medium chances for light rain with a few snowflakes possible
  late Sunday through Sunday night.

- Continued below-normal temperatures through the next several
  days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

It was a chilly, gloomy late evening with temperatures in the
lower to mid 30s. A stagnant pattern is expected through the night
with weak surface high pressure. A strong inversion shown on the
OHX 00Z sounding around 925mb will keep low clouds and somewhat
foggy conditions locked in place. Temperatures will slip just a
few degrees to the upper 20s to lower 30s by daybreak Saturday.
There is some risk for patchy freezing fog overnight where the low
clouds break, but for the most part the clouds will stay in place
and preclude dense fog formation.

The wx will stay dry Saturday. Clouds will hang around in the
morning. Just enough south wind will develop in the afternoon
with passage of weak shortwave to (hopefully) mix out some of the
low clouds and warm temps into the mid 40s to around 50s. Lows
Saturday night will drop to the lower 30s.

A couple of weak shortwave disturbances will move across the area
Sunday through Sunday night with patchy light precipitation. South
winds ahead of the first wave will help warm temps a little more
for Sunday with mostly lower 50s. A cold front will follow with
cooler temps Sunday night and Monday. So, any light precip on
Sunday will be rain, but the colder air may bring a few snowflakes
Sunday night into early Monday. No accumulations are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Broad high pressure builds over the east US Tuesday warming us
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s. An upper level trough will
dig out of Canada into the Great Lakes mid to late week. This will
bring low rain chances but there is quite a bit of uncertainty on
timing and placement of this trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A large swath of IFR cigs currently overlays Middle TN terminals
this evening with LIFR cigs around 005-004 noted downstream. The
LIFR cloud deck will move in overnight and all terminals will see
another drop of a few hundred ft in cigs. Hazy conditions will
persist overnight, too, though thick cloud cover should mitigate
dense fog development. Models across the board are showing a
gradual rise to MVFR after ~12Z, and western terminals may see a
return to VFR cigs by Saturday afternoon. CSV and SRB are unlikely
to return to VFR thresholds this taf cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      30  49  35  53 /   0   0  10  10
Clarksville    28  48  34  51 /   0   0  10  10
Crossville     29  45  30  49 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia       29  50  32  53 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     29  45  31  49 /   0   0   0  10
Jamestown      28  44  29  49 /   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   30  49  32  53 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   29  48  32  53 /   0   0   0  10
Waverly        28  46  33  51 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Baggett