642
FXUS64 KOHX 211130
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
630 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Clear skies are being seen across Middle TN at forecast time, but
with dew point depressions falling and calm winds, patchy fog is
expected to begin developing over the next couple of hours. Again,
nothing too widespread, but the usual spots will see it. Use caution
during your morning commute, especially near bodies of water.

Another couple days of gross heat is on tap today and tomorrow as
high pressure aloft is maximized. We`re currently advertising 96 at
BNA today, which is reasonable, but with the ridge directly
overhead, I could easily see a couple more degrees. Tomorrow will
likely see it one way or another. Heat Index values will hover
around 100 degrees with a few spots expected to reach into the low
triple digits over the next several days. CAMs continue to spark
isolated convection each of the next two afternoons. Tiny PoPs are
warranted both days, but coverage should be pretty limited due to
ridging influences. If we do see any storms, heavy rain, copious
lightning and gusty winds are all possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

As we`ve been advertising, rain chances increase Sunday. Models are
depicting rain chances slightly earlier than we`ve been discussing,
which will make things a little more interesting. With a boundary
broaching the mid-state area earlier in the day, it will be running
into a much more unstable environment. Lapse rates are poor (6.0
deg/Km or less), but we got some wind a few days ago with similar
conditions. PWs also climb close to 2 inches. I don`t think we`re
looking at anything widespread due to a lack of shear, but with the
addition of surface convergence and at least some amount of lift,
one will want to pay attention if you have outdoor plans on Sunday.
Rain chances linger into the overnight hours and into Monday
morning, especially for those south of I-40.

Models have changed their tune a little in the extended with less of
a dirty ridge and more synoptic support for thunderstorms mid-week.
Soundings are extremely saturated and shear is non-existent, but it
is summer, so all of the weather concerns listed earlier will come
into play.

My 8-day streak of 95+ degrees was dashed by a couple of degrees
yesterday, but it should get started today. We may not see 8
straight days, but it`s going to be hot and humid nonetheless.
Please take the proper precautions to protect yourself from the heat
if you have outdoor plans for the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

A surface ridge continues to extend through Middle Tennessee while
an upper high circulates directly overhead. TAFs are VFR. Expect
light/calm winds thru the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      96  74  97  75 /   0   0  10  10
Clarksville    93  72  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
Crossville     88  67  89  68 /  10   0  10  10
Columbia       95  71  96  72 /   0   0  10  10
Cookeville     90  69  91  71 /  10   0  10  10
Jamestown      89  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
Lawrenceburg   93  71  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
Murfreesboro   95  72  97  72 /   0   0  10  10
Waverly        93  72  94  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Rose