427
FXUS64 KOHX 271717
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1217 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1211 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

- Mostly below-normal temperatures will continue but afternoon
  highs will warm closer to normal heading into the weekend.

- Generally dry pattern, but very low rain chances in the far
  southern counties Thursday into Friday. Low rain chances mostly
  southeast half Sunday into Monday.

- Low RH values and dry fuels will cause localized marginal fire
  weather conditions with worsening drought levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

A mainly dry and seasonally comfortable pattern will continue
through the rest of the week. Long-wave troughing will prevail
across the eastern CONUS along with dry surface high pressure.
Temperatures will be generally on the cool side of normal, but
some afternoons will warm near normal levels. The low RH values
and cool nights will keep it reasonably comfortable for this time
of year.

One possible exception to the dryness will be a small rain chance
across our far southern counties Thursday into Friday as a
shortwave disturbance moves from the Plains to the Deep South.
Rain with this system may not reach the ground in our area thanks
to the drier than usual air mass in place.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

The large-scale pattern is expected to remain generally steady with
a trough across the East and ridging across the West. This will
favor near normal or slightly cooler temperatures across Middle TN
for the remainder of the forecast period. Some days will be warmer
than others, but overall there should be few complaints. With
limited moisture availability and lack of significant forcing, rain
chances will remain pretty scant for the region. We are watching
Sunday into Monday as a weak trough develops over the area, possibly
tapping into some moisture lurking just to our southeast. This
trough may bring some scattered showers across our area Sunday into
Monday, particularly in the southeast. Model solutions vary and
pops are mostly in the 20 to 30 percent range. Right now it looks
like any outdoor plans should be good, but don`t be surprised by a
passing shower.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

TAFs are VFR with generally light NE winds the next 24 hrs. The
atmosphere across Middle Tennessee is dry and stable. Surface high
pressure is currently centered over southern Indiana with the
upper ridge further west and a NW flow aloft over us.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      58  85  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    54  85  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     52  77  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       57  84  55  87 /   0  10  10   0
Cookeville     53  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      52  78  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   55  82  54  85 /   0  10  10  10
Murfreesboro   56  84  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        57  84  54  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Rose