684
FXUS64 KOHX 160540
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

- Humid with medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms
  each day through Thursday. Greatest rain chances each afternoon
  and early evening. Severe weather threat is low.

- Flash flood potential expected with the storms each day through
  Thursday, particularly for areas that see multiple rounds of
  heavy rainfall.

- Summer-like heat and drier weather makes an appearance across
  Middle Tennessee for next weekend. Heat indices climbing to 100
  Saturday through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

As of 10 pm CDT...skies across Middle Tennessee are partly cloudy.
Current temperatures are in the 70s, and those dewpoints are as well
making it feel quite muggy for this late evening hour. Winds are
light and variable. At the surface, a persistent trough of low
pressure remains entrenched across the Ohio Valley extending into
the southern US. Aloft, weak shortwave trough was centered over
northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri, embedded within a larger
elongated upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes to the
southern US. Latest WSR-88D radar imagery shows scattered showers
and storms, primarily now along our TN/KY border and then across
southern Middle Tennessee.

For the rest of tonight, expect current convective activity to
gradually wane but not come to an end completely. With this humid
air in place and upper level lift/support, wouldn`t surprise me
again to have some overnight weak convection and/or showers. The
flash flood threat should be trending down overnight as convection
is moving along more with outflow boundaries now and cells are not
as pronounced/large as in the previous few hours. Light winds are
expected, and with clouds clearing out some, patchy fog can be
anticipated...particularly for areas that received heavy rainfall
this evening. Temperatures won`t cool too much more from what is
currently observed.

On Monday, the weak shortwave trough over Arkansas will move very
slowly into Western Tennessee. Once again, with daytime heating, we
can expect scattered showers and storms once again. With the upper
level forcing, it`s possible we see a line of storms or two moving
across the region through the afternoon and evening hours. In a
repeat of the past several days, poor mid-level lapse rates and a
complete lack of wind shear should mitigate the severe weather
threat. On the flip side, model guidance indicates PWATs around to
in excess of 2 inches tomorrow, which is well into the 90th
percentile and nearing record levels. This is quite impressive, and
with potential for a couple rounds of storms and storm motions of
15kts or so, I`m concerned about the flash flood potential for
tomorrow afternoon/evening. I wish there was a more consistent
signal in the CAMs for a more substantial complex of storms, but
that`s just not going to happen with this type of setup. Either way,
we need to be on our guard for that flash flood potential,
especially based on what we saw earlier this evening in Maury,
Robertson, and Sumner Counties. Would not surprise me at all of we
saw a few flash floods. Once again, once we lose daytime heating,
we`ll see a gradual reduction in convective activity.

For Tuesday, sigh, here we go again. This time, the weak shortwave
trough/disturbance will start to move along, reaching the KY/WV
border by late evening. With that movement by the disturbance, we
should kick of a wider coverage in storms with the best chances for
rain should be along and east of I-65, potentially more impactful to
our Cumberland Plateau regions. Wind shear and lapse rates remain
weak, and PWATs remain in the 90th percentile...here we go again.
Very low chance for severe storms...we might see a strong wind gusts
somewhere...might but doubtful. The more impactful threat will be
flash flooding, especially for areas that have received heavy
rainfall in recent days. It won`t take much heavy rain to produce
flooding either...as with recent events, an inch or two in 30
minutes will do the job. Peak times for convection will be anytime
after Noon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

For this long-term forecast, we`re once again focused on
thunderstorm chances initially (Wednesday and Thursday), but then
attention turns to our first real bout of summertime weather.

On Wednesday, we might see a relative lull in convective activity
compared to what we`re expecting in days prior to Wednesday. Middle
Tennessee will be situated between disturbances, but with the
persistent warmth, instability, and moisture, afternoon pop-ups can
be expected. The best chances seem to be along the Cumberland
Plateau. You can probably guess the main threats from these storms
by now...cloud-to-ground lightning, very heavy downpours, and
perhaps a gust of wind or two.

For Thursday, an upper level distrubance moves across the Great
Lakes and the Ohio Valley, with Middle Tennessee on the tail end of
this system. With a weak surface trough moving into the area, expect
a more organized round of storms to form and move across the region.
Shear improves compared to recent days, but still only topping out
at 25 kts for 0-6 km bulk shear. CAPE and mid-level lapse rates
improve ever so slightly. Essentially, this means that we may have a
few more organized clusters progressing west to east across the
area. With the potential for a surface trough to be draped across
the area, and rounds of storms traveling along this trough axis,
it`s once again possible we have a flash flood scenario emerge, and
this one may be a little more concerning with potential for training
storms. The severe potential will be higher than in recent days, but
overall not terribly concerning. Wind would be the main threat if a
severe threat were to emerge.

Finally, once this disturbance passes, we`ll have a pattern change.
We`ll start to dry out, though a few afternoon thunderstorms each
day can`t be completely ruled out. What we will see though is a
ridge of high pressure building in, and the heat building up.
Widespread afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 90s are
currently anticipated, and with rich moisture still at the surface,
our heat index readings will be pushing 100 or so Saturday through
Monday. Our first taste of summer looks assured this time, so
prepare to start sharing some heat messaging as it looks quite
uncomfortable for what we`re used to so far this year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Iso showers are still in the region as of this writing but are
only in the vicinity of SRB and CSV for TAF purposes. These two
airfields will be dealing with decreasing cigs overnight, with
MVFR/IFR possible through ~14z. Best chances are at CSV.

Elsewhere, winds are basically calm with a scattering of clouds.
However, I do trend cigs down to MVFR at BNA/MQY and CKV toward
day break. It doesn`t look like MVFR will be around for too long
with improvement expected ~16z with southwesterly winds becoming
5-7 kts. Scattered showers and t-storms will once again be the
challenge during the afternoon and I`ve kept TAF mentions at
PROB30 due to timing/placement uncertainties at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      88  73  85  73 /  80  60 100  10
Clarksville    84  72  84  73 /  80  70  70  10
Crossville     82  67  80  67 /  80  60 100  40
Columbia       87  70  84  71 /  70  60  90  10
Cookeville     84  68  81  69 /  80  60  90  30
Jamestown      83  67  81  68 /  80  60 100  40
Lawrenceburg   87  70  84  70 /  70  60  90  20
Murfreesboro   89  71  85  71 /  80  50 100  20
Waverly        84  69  83  71 /  80  70  70  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Husted
LONG TERM....Husted
AVIATION.....Sizemore