261
FXUS64 KOHX 150451
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1151 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1149 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend.

- Temperatures will be above normal through the week, peaking in
  the mid 80s on the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Wednesday brings another beautiful fall day with dry weather and
temperatures warming into the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds will
remain out of the NE between 5-10 mph. Starting to sound like a
broken record here, but Thursday will be much of the same. A mid
level low strengthens over the N Rockies and moves into the N
Great Plains. This causes the ridge over the MS River Valley to
become more amplified and shifts further east. Overall, not much
change in weather for us because of these interactions, but it is
the start of a pattern change as the mid-levels become more
dynamic heading into the end of the week and weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

By Friday our upper ridge axis will be directly overhead. This
will offer another day of pleasant weather, then an upper level
low will push a cold front south into the Plains and Middle TN
through the weekend. This front will bring showers and
thunderstorms back into the forecast for Saturday evening through
Sunday morning. Latest models still support a robust mid-level
jet, causing bulk shear values of greater than 40 kts. Dewpoints
still look to be in the 50s and 60s ahead of the front. Timing
still is a little uncertain, but in general, the front will push
east through Middle TN Saturday night into Sunday morning. As far
as a severe weather threat goes, thinking the threat is overall
low at this time as storms look to march through in a low CAPE
environment. That said, there will be plenty of shear and lapse
rates could be marginal early in the evening so a few strong
storms will be possible, mainly west of I-65 given current model
guidance. The main severe threat still looks most favorable
farther west, were storms will be firing off during the late
afternoon.

The cold front pushes through on Sunday and highs will fall back
into the 70s. Quiet and dry weather returns next week as an upper
level ridge slowly builds back over the region. We will likely see
one of our coolest nights of the season so far, with widespread
low 40s overnight. Dry and seasonal temperatures remain through
mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conditions expected for all mid-state terminals over the next
24 hours. Winds will be light from the northeast at 10 kts or
less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      53  82  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    52  82  55  79 /   0   0  10   0
Crossville     48  75  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       51  82  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     50  76  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      49  73  50  71 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   50  80  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   51  81  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        51  80  55  80 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....13