691
FXUS64 KOHX 272324
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
624 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

- Mostly below-normal temperatures will continue but afternoon
  highs will warm closer to normal heading into the weekend.

- Generally dry pattern, but very low rain chances in the far
  southern counties Thursday into Friday. Low rain chances mostly
  southeast half Sunday into Monday.

- Low RH values and dry fuels will cause localized marginal fire
  weather conditions with worsening drought levels.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

High pressure is set up over the region and that will keep the
quiet and pleasant weather in place as we head into the evening.
There is a short wave off to our west and that will dig tonight.
That will bring some high clouds and we are already seeing those
across the area. The cloud cover will keep things a bit warmer
tonight compared to last night but it will still be chilly with
lows in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

A mainly dry and seasonally comfortable pattern will continue
through the rest of the week. Long-wave troughing will prevail
across the eastern CONUS along with dry surface high pressure.
Temperatures will be generally on the cool side of normal, but
some afternoons will warm near normal levels. The low RH values
and cool nights will keep it reasonably comfortable for this time
of year.

One possible exception to the dryness will be a small rain chance
across our far southern counties Thursday into Friday as a
shortwave disturbance moves from the Plains to the Deep South.
Rain with this system may not reach the ground in our area thanks
to the drier than usual air mass in place.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

The large-scale pattern is expected to remain generally steady with
a trough across the East and ridging across the West. This will
favor near normal or slightly cooler temperatures across Middle TN
for the remainder of the forecast period. Some days will be warmer
than others, but overall there should be few complaints. With
limited moisture availability and lack of significant forcing, rain
chances will remain pretty scant for the region. We are watching
Sunday into Monday as a weak trough develops over the area, possibly
tapping into some moisture lurking just to our southeast. This
trough may bring some scattered showers across our area Sunday into
Monday, particularly in the southeast. Model solutions vary and
pops are mostly in the 20 to 30 percent range. Right now it looks
like any outdoor plans should be good, but don`t be surprised by a
passing shower.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period with quiet weather remaining
in place. Winds will be light out of the north under 5 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      58  85  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    54  85  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     51  77  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       57  83  56  87 /   0   0  10   0
Cookeville     54  78  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      51  77  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   55  81  56  85 /   0   0  10  10
Murfreesboro   56  83  56  87 /   0   0  10   0
Waverly        57  83  56  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Mueller