746
FXUS64 KOHX 151747
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1247 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

- Humid with medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms
  each day through Thursday. Greatest rain chances each afternoon
  and early evening.

- Little to no risk for severe weather, but some of the storms
  will contain torrential downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty
  winds.

- After one last round of storms Thursday, summer-like heat and
  dry weather makes an appearance across Middle Tennessee for next
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tonight)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Temperatures are only in the 70s at forecast time across the entire
mid-state, but so are dew points. It`s sticky out there. We do have
a few showers on radar, mainly across the northern Plateau and while
they won`t be the only ones to see showers today, areas east of I-65
seem to be a little more favored in hi-res models. I expect that as
clouds break up a little more from this morning and allow the air to
warm, we`ll see additional showers and a few thunderstorms later
this afternoon. Taking a look at the 12Z OHX sounding, lapse rates
and shear values remain poor, so I don`t even really expect any
strong storms, but if you`re going to be out and about today, I`d
keep an umbrella handy.

Similar to last night, I expect most of the daytime activity to wane
after sunset, but scattered showers will be possible through the
overnight hours. Where it doesn`t rain, some fog is possible, but it
shouldn`t be egregious.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The forecast remains fairly well on track for the upcoming week.
Temperatures should remain in the 80s through Thursday with
rain/thunderstorm chances each day. It`s amazing how stagnant the
atmosphere has been and looks to remain for the next couple of days.
Forecast soundings show consistent poor lapse rates and a very
little shear through Tuesday. However on Wednesday, lapse rates
improve *slightly*. This could spell a little better coverage of
afternoon/early evening thunderstorm, but organization is still
lacking through Wednesday. Thursday may end up being our best day
for thunderstorm coverage as an upper level impulse swings a weak
trough through the region. If it verifies, this trough could
provide conditions for a little better organization, but I still
don`t know if it`ll be enough for severe storms -- maybe a couple
of strong wind gusts.

Once Friday rolls around, extended guidance continues to be bullish
with reducing rain chances as upper level ridging starts to take
over for the weekend. PoPs drop off, but temperatures start to rise.
We`ll be close to 90 at BNA Friday and looking at current probs
over the weekend, NBM ensembles suggest a 90%+ chance of reaching
into the low to mid 90s both Saturday and Sunday next weekend.
We`ll welcome the drier pattern, but much more summertime
temperatures may be on the way.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Currently, there is very little convective activity ongoing across
Middle Tennessee. Patches of MVFR ceilings are still lingering
across the area, but the terminals are expected to remain VFR for
at least the afternoon and evening, except during TS/SHRA. A
quasi-stationary surface boundary is situated to our immediate
north and west, and this leaves us in a wet airmass, but also with
only modest instability owing to mid-level lapse rates that are
close to moist adiabatic. Therefore, the probability of afternoon
thunderstorms is low enough that we can handle with PROB30 groups
for now, with VCSH perhaps lingering into the evening. Overnight,
look for radiation fog and low ceilings to develop once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  86  73  87 /  30  70  70  60
Clarksville    71  83  72  86 /  20  80  90  50
Crossville     65  81  66  80 /  40  60  60  90
Columbia       70  86  70  86 /  30  70  80  70
Cookeville     67  83  69  80 /  30  60  70  80
Jamestown      66  82  66  80 /  30  60  70  90
Lawrenceburg   69  86  69  85 /  30  60  70  70
Murfreesboro   70  88  70  86 /  30  60  70  70
Waverly        68  83  69  85 /  40  80  80  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Rose