761
FXUS64 KOHX 182310
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
510 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 459 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

- Medium to high (50-80%) chance for showers and thunderstorms
  this evening. Low chance for severe weather north of I-40 with
  brief gusty winds and hail possible.

- Medium to high chances (40-80%) for rain and thunderstorms again
  Thursday through Friday night. Drier weather returns this
  weekend.

- Above-normal temperatures expected through next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 459 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

A severe thunderstorm watch was issued just northwest of our
coverage area for this evening. Although a tornado cannot be
completely ruled out, it is thought that most of the evening
storms will tap into elevated instability, so the hazards appear
to be more hail and gusty winds. But, the question for us is how
much strength will remain in the storms as they move into our
area, mostly after 8 PM CST. There will likely be thunderstorms,
but with decreasing instability and weakening lift, we are not
anticipating severe weather. Still, we will keep a close watch on
our northwest counties to see if any of the incoming cells do
maintain strength. Otherwise, as the activity moves across the Mid
State through the evening, expect some brief downpours and gusty
winds followed by some lingering patchy light showers, drizzle and
fog late in the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

An interesting afternoon and evening lies ahead for Middle TN.
Currently, showers and storms (some of which were warned-on earlier
this morning) are traversing central KY near a warm front associated
with a low pressure system over southern Illinois/eastern Missouri.
However, at forecast time, a capping inversion is keeping things
quiet here at home (dew points in the 20s and 30s are also
contributing to these quiet conditions). As we move into the
afternoon hours, a secondary warm front from this system is expected
to pull moisture into the mid-state from Mississippi and west TN.
Dew points will be on the rise and should reach into the low to mid
60s by this evening, especially for areas west of I-65 and north of
I-40. As the surface low treks across the Ohio Valley late this
afternoon and into the evening hours, 40-50 kts of bulk shear will
begin to overlap with a few hundred J/Kg of instability that will be
able to build this afternoon and will open the door for a low-end
severe weather threat. The main area of focus will be in the
previously mentioned region of Middle TN between 5 pm and midnight
this evening. The latest few runs of the HRRR have been very bullish
with the amount of surface based CAPE (upwards of 700 J/Kg) that
will be able to develop before we start to lose the heating of today
and in turn, have been suggesting a few sustained updrafts in storms
that will enter northwest Middle TN this evening. The 12Z HREF does
show a slight uptick in members going along with the HRRR, which
puts the likelihood of seeing 200+ J/Kg of CAPE in our northwest at
about 40%. If there`s anything that does worry me is the low-
level hodographs expected across this part of Middle TN ahead of
storms. 0-1 km helicity values of 200 are expected to be in
place, which would present a tornado threat if storms can become
rooted at the surface. Bottom line, while the overall severe
weather threat is low and very conditional (on the available
instability), if you will be located north of I-40 this evening,
there will be a need to be weather aware as damaging straight line
winds, hail and (to a lesser degree) a tornado will be possible
this evening. By midnight, while showers and some storms will
still be ongoing as this shortwave moves across the region, the
severe threat should be over and precip should be out of Middle TN
well before sunrise Wednesday. This will leave Wednesday quiet
and rainfree as weak ridging builds into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Our next chance of rain this week is expected to start entering the
picture on Thursday morning. Showers should break across the TN
River shortly after daybreak and spread across the mid-state through
the morning hours. Rain is current progged to come in two waves
between Thursday and Friday, with the second around the same time
Friday morning. Currently, I`m not overly concerned about any severe
weather threat on Friday, but forecast soundings aren`t too shabby.
There will definitely be storms around Friday afternoon and into the
evening hours and they may be worth watching. More on that after we
get through this evening`s storms.

After Friday, skies should be dry for the upcoming weekend.
Temperatures will relax a bit, but remain above normal right into
the start of next week. Speaking of, the next system looks to
arrive in the Tuesday time frame and also could be interesting.
The bill may be coming due for how quiet it`s been lately.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 459 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions early this evening will deteriorate as a broken band
of showers and thunderstorms moves in from the northwest. Impacts
from the SHRA/TSRA will occur mostly between 03Z-08Z. A severe
storm watch is in effect northwest of our area, but the storms are
expected to weaken as they move into Middle TN. IFR/MVFR
cigs/vsbys will follow for late tonight with low clouds and patchy
fog. Cigs will improve slowly through the day Wednesday. Winds
will start out gusty to 22KT form the SSW. Winds will settle down
after the showers and storms and become NW less than 10KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      60  72  53  70 /  90  10  10  50
Clarksville    58  68  51  67 /  80   0  10  70
Crossville     55  68  49  68 /  90  20   0  20
Columbia       61  76  53  75 /  80   0  10  40
Cookeville     57  69  51  68 /  90  20   0  30
Jamestown      55  67  50  66 / 100  20   0  20
Lawrenceburg   61  76  53  76 /  70   0  10  30
Murfreesboro   61  74  53  73 /  90  10  10  40
Waverly        59  70  52  68 /  90   0  20  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....13