835
FXUS64 KOHX 171740
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1240 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Strong upper level ridge is building over the eastern US. A few
weak short waves are spinning around the ridge and this will give
us the chance for a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
ridge is a bit further west today and that will keep the threat
mainly along and west of I-65. Poor lapse rates and low shear will
keep any thunderstorms from becoming organized but can`t rule
out isolated wind gusts to 40 mph as storms collapse on
themselves. Heavy rain will be the main concern with any
convection with PWATs greater than 1.70". Some areas could get a
quick inch of rain under any thunderstorms. Thunderstorm activity
will diminish quickly as the sunsets. It will be hot again today
but with mid to high level clouds it should be a little cooler
than yesterday, still looking at highs in the low to mid 90s. Dew
points are very uncomfortable in the low to mid 70s and once you
factor in the heat index it will feel similar to yesterday.

High to mid level clouds stick around tonight and that will keep
things warm overnight with lows only in the low to mid 70s.
Another short wave will spin around the ridge early tomorrow and
may bring a few isolated showers and thunderstorms to far
northern areas in the morning. Afternoon highs will once again be
in the 90s with dew points in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

We are going to see quiet weather for the week as a strong ridge
builds over the eastern US. This will continue to bring hot
weather with highs staying in the 90s. Dew points will stay in the
mid 60s to around 70. The ridge will start to push west some as
we head into the later part of the week into next weekend. This
will push highs into the mid to upper 90s and we could see a few
100s over the weekend. An upper level trough will push into the
Great Lakes Sunday into early next week. This will push a front
into the region and will bring shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions will prevail thru 18/18Z. Not enough confidence to
mention tstms prevailing/moving across CKV/BNA/MQY terminals, but
certainly can not rule out vicinity formation, thus mentioned 3
hour window BNA/MQY and 5 hour window CKV. Prevailing south sfc
winds 5-10kts with low level pressure gradient influences supporting
gusts to 20 kts CKV for at least a couple of more hours. Scattered/broken
CI, and low/mid level CU & AC prevalent at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  93  74  92 /  20  10   0   0
Clarksville    73  91  72  90 /  30  20   0   0
Crossville     68  86  66  85 /  10  10   0   0
Columbia       72  92  71  90 /  20  10   0   0
Cookeville     72  88  70  87 /  10  20   0   0
Jamestown      70  87  68  86 /  10  20   0   0
Lawrenceburg   72  90  71  88 /  10   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   73  92  72  91 /  10  10   0   0
Waverly        72  90  71  89 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....JB Wright