695
FXUS64 KOHX 031718
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1118 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1114 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Rain chances return Thursday night. There is a low chance of a
  wintry mix across Middle TN Friday morning. This will need to be
  monitored closely as there`s a 25-30% chance of accumulating
  ice on the Cumberland Plateau.

- Temperatures recover quickly Friday morning to limit any
  accumulating ice impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1034 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

So much for seeing sun today. A rather large inversion over the
region has kept a stratus deck trapped over Middle TN through the
night and into this morning. There is some eroding of the deck in
north Georgia that is trying to eeek it`s way into our southeastern
counties and while clouds may break up for a few this afternoon
in that part of the mid-state (some thinning in our southwest),
most are expected to remain socked in with clouds. That means
afternoon highs initially forecast are going to be cooler than we
thought. Some south of I-40 may see 40 degrees, but most will
remain in the 30s today. Clouds stick around tonight and while I`d
like to say we`ll see some sun tomorrow, that might actually not
be the case as our next system is due in here pretty quickly
tomorrow night. That means I`m going to run above NBM for
overnight lows again (3-5 degrees) and tomorrow should also be a
little cooler than currently depicted in the NBM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1034 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

The biggest story with this forecast package is shaping up to be the
previously mentioned system tomorrow night. It still looks like the
setup is one of an overrunning scenario where rain and warm air
aloft moves in from the south and precipitates into a cold surface
layer. Now, there`s a LOT of things that will go into this,
including wetbulb temperatures, surface temperatures and how intense
the rain is that decides whether we get freezing rain out of
tomorrow night`s system. As of right now, probabilities of
getting a few hundredths of freezing rain tomorrow night stand at
25-30% on the Cumberland Plateau and 10-15% elsewhere across
Middle TN. While that doesn`t seem like a great chance, those
numbers have ticked up 10-15% in this morning`s NBM/LREF suite.
We`ll get into HREF territory later today, but let it be said one
of its members (HRRR) is showing a little less than a tenth of an
inch of ice on the Cumberland Plateau tomorrow night. For now,
we`ll highlight the highest probability is a cold rain, but there
is a low risk of a swath of mixed wintry precipitation somewhere
in Middle TN.

Precipitation in whatever form it ends up being should be out of
here mid-morning on Friday and while there might be some clearing of
these clouds Friday afternoon, our next weather system will likely
push additional (or continued) cloud cover into the mid-state
Saturday and rain chances Saturday night right into Sunday. The NBM
is showing these rain chances as low due to inconsistencies from
model to model, so this will likely have to be revisited a couple of
times over the next few days. In either scenario, temperatures
through this forecast will remain several degrees below normal for
this time of the year. After the Saturday night/Sunday rain chances,
we should dry out for a couple of days before another system enters
the picture mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Satellite is starting to show low clouds breaking up and we should
see gradual clearing as the afternoon goes on with VFR conditions
expected by 21z. Mid level clouds build in during the evening and
overnight and there is a moderate chance of MVFR cigs returning
to KCKV tomorrow morning. Southerly winds up to 6 knots through
the afternoon becoming northerly under 5 knots overnight. No
precip through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      41  31  41  33 /   0   0  10  60
Clarksville    37  28  36  29 /   0   0  10  20
Crossville     40  28  40  30 /   0   0  10  90
Columbia       42  30  42  33 /   0   0  10  90
Cookeville     39  29  40  31 /   0   0  10  90
Jamestown      38  28  38  29 /   0   0  10  80
Lawrenceburg   42  30  43  34 /   0   0  10  80
Murfreesboro   41  29  42  33 /   0   0  10  90
Waverly        37  30  37  29 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Mueller