141
FXUS64 KOHX 281805
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1205 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1150 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

- Widespread rain showers expected Saturday night into Sunday
  morning, then again Monday night into Tuesday morning. Forecast
  total rainfall through Tuesday is 0.5"-1.5".

- Low to medium chances of light snow across northwest portions of
  Middle Tennessee Tuesday morning. Chances for 1.0" or greater
  accumulation are very low (<20%) at this time.

- Temperatures remain below-normal for the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Longwave upper-troughing remains across much of the CONUS today
with a shortwave disturbance evident on water vapor imagery across
the Northern Rockies. This system is projected to move into the
Plains tomorrow fostering a strengthening low pressure system that
will move toward the Great Lakes Saturday night. A low-level jet
is expected to form ahead of the advancing cold front which should
support warm, moist advection and widespread light rain across
Middle Tennessee into Sunday morning. Rather light rainfall
amounts are forecast. We`ll also have marginal fire weather
conditions Saturday afternoon due to low RH values and increasing
southerly gusts prior to moistening boundary layer conditions.

Until then, it`ll be another cold night tonight with lows in the
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The longwave pattern will not shift much into early next week with
broad upper-troughing and passing shortwaves. In fact, a
subsequent shortwave is projected to advance across the Southern
Plains toward the Mississippi Valley on Monday. This appears to
favor cyclogenesis close to the Gulf Coast, though southerly low-
level flow is expected to spread northward into the Ohio Valley
where cold/dry air is in place. Once lower tropospheric saturation
occurs, wintry precipitation is possible, but is currently
favoring areas north of Middle Tennessee due to warming surface
temperatures within the surface trough. Nonetheless, we continue
to monitor for any snowfall accumulations as there`s a low chance
for accumulations across the northwest half of the area. Latest
LREF probabilities show a <40% chance for seeing at least 0.1"
(measurable snow), but only 10-20% chance of seeing 1.0" or more.
We`re currently not expecting any meaningful accumulations or
impacts for that matter. A good widespread soaking of rainfall is
likely, however.

The remainder of the forecast period appears cool, dry with
continuation of below-normal temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR conditions forecasted through the next 24 hours. Light NW
winds become light SE after 06z tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      45  28  52  37 /   0   0  20  80
Clarksville    43  26  48  33 /   0   0  60  80
Crossville     39  20  45  35 /   0   0  10  70
Columbia       46  26  51  37 /   0   0  20  90
Cookeville     40  23  48  35 /   0   0  10  80
Jamestown      38  22  47  34 /   0   0  10  70
Lawrenceburg   46  26  51  38 /   0   0  10  90
Murfreesboro   45  25  52  38 /   0   0  10  80
Waverly        44  28  47  31 /   0   0  60  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Sizemore