009
FXUS64 KOHX 020509
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1109 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1106 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

- Low to medium chances for a light accumulation of freezing rain,
  sleet, and snow for northwest portions of Middle Tennessee
  tonight into tomorrow morning. A Winter Weather Advisory is in
  effect.

- Dry weather expected Tuesday night through Thursday with decreasing
  chances for rain Friday and Saturday.

- Temperatures remain below seasonal norms for the next several
  days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1109 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Our rainmaker is certainly providing some bright returns on radar
but, at least here at the office, only spitting out drizzle right
now. The air above us is certainly saturated as seen on satellite.
Mixed precipitation continues to be a possibility, but probabilities
continue. Right now, a winter weather advisory is in effect for our
northwestern counties for the wintry precipitation through 8am
Tuesday morning. Accumulations look to be minimal, with expected
snow totals under half an inch through Tuesday morning. Expect for
conditions to be slippery from the wintry precipitation, so plan for
extra time on the morning commute. Highs will not be much different
from the temperatures we`re seeing currently, only warming into the
mid 30s across the mid-state.

Once the backside of the trough moves out of our area, dry air will
be swift in taking its place. This will end precipitation, but some
snow flurries or grains cannot be ruled out as this transition
occurs in the afternoon. No impacts expected from these flurries.
Tuesday night looks to be bitterly cold temperature wise, with lows
in the low 20s to upper teens.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1109 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

The pattern after this system will remain active in Middle
Tennessee. Another system at the end of the week and into the
weekend will end our brief cold and dry period, which will bring
more precipitation to the mid-state. QPF from this system looks to
be on the low side. Below- normal temperatures look to persist
through the forecast period as well, so it looks like winter has
firmly taken its place here in the mid- state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1033 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Rain and a wintry precipitation mix is moving through Middle TN
tonight, bringing widespread IFR to LIFR conditions. Precipitation
will continue until early Tuesday morning, gradually ending
between around 09Z to 14Z from west to east with the arrival of a
cold front. Behind this front, winds will become northwesterly.
While IFR to LIFR ceilings will gradually improve after 14Z, MVFR
conditions look to persist through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      32  38  24  49 / 100   0   0   0
Clarksville    29  35  21  45 / 100   0   0   0
Crossville     31  38  20  46 / 100  30   0   0
Columbia       31  39  20  50 / 100   0   0   0
Cookeville     31  36  22  46 / 100  20   0   0
Jamestown      30  36  22  45 / 100  20   0   0
Lawrenceburg   31  38  21  50 / 100   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   32  38  21  49 / 100   0   0   0
Waverly        29  36  21  46 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM CST Tuesday for TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Clements