057
FXUS64 KOHX 190442
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1142 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1123 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

- Afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms will
  continue for the foreseeable future.

- The risk of severe weather is low, however, heavy rainfall,
  gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with any
  storm.

- It`ll be hot and humid each afternoon with Heat Index values
  above 100 in many areas west of the Cumberland Plateau -- even
  hotter next week!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

We are still seeing quite a bit of thunderstorm activity across
the area. These thunderstorms will loose their steam over the
next few hours and we will be mainly dry for the overnight.
Chances for fog overnight look low. Not going to see a lot of
change in the weather pattern for Saturday. It`s going to be
another afternoon of scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the area as we see weak vort maxes spin around an upper level
ridge set up just to our south. The latest HREF favors more
widespread coverage south of I-40 and towards the TN/AL boarder
but all of the area will see pop up thunderstorms. With the lack
of shear the severe threat will be low but we will continue to see
the threat for localized flash flooding with thunderstorms as
PWATs remain near 2.0" or greater. Also can`t rule out gusty
winds with any stronger up drafts especially as they collapse.
Highs will be a few degrees cooler compared to Friday with upper
80s to lower 90s. It won`t feel that much cooler tho with dew
points in the mid to upper 70s, that will push heat index values
for much of the area well into the 90s to near 100.

Thunderstorms will diminish during the evening and we will be
mainly dry Saturday night with mild lows in the low to mid 70s.
The upper level ridge will start to amplify over us on Sunday.
This will be the start of a warming trend that will continue into
next week. Highs on Sunday will push into the low to mid 90s with
afternoon heat index values 100-105. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected once again in the afternoon and evening with heavy rain
being the main threat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

The upper level ridge will continue to amplify over Middle TN over
the extended period. This will bring a hot week with highs pushing
into the mid to upper 90s by the middle part of the week.
Overnight lows will also remain on the warm side falling into the
low to mid 70s. The humidity will stick around and that will push
afternoon heat index values into the 100-110 range. This will be
an extended period of hot temperatures and we will see major to
extreme heat risk develop by Wednesday and continue into the end
of the week. Afternoon thunderstorms will become less likely each
day as profiles begin to warm but still can`t rule out low chances
for pop up thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Thunderstorms across the area will gradually diminish over the
next few hours with mainly dry conditions after 08z. We may see
periods of MVFR cigs from 08 to 15z with locally reduced vis,
otherwise VFR conditions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
develop again Saturday after 17z. The best chances will be south
of I-40 and over the Plateau. IFR/LIFR in any thunderstorms.
Southerly winds up to 7 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  91  76  95 /  60  60  30  40
Clarksville    75  90  76  94 /  50  50  20  40
Crossville     69  83  69  87 /  50  70  40  70
Columbia       73  88  73  93 /  30  60  40  40
Cookeville     72  85  72  89 /  60  60  40  60
Jamestown      70  84  71  87 /  30  70  40  70
Lawrenceburg   72  88  72  92 /  20  70  30  50
Murfreesboro   74  89  74  94 /  40  60  40  50
Waverly        73  89  74  93 /  40  60  20  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Mueller