379
FXUS64 KOHX 141558
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1058 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1054 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue through the
  week.

- Although the severe weather risk is low, heavy rainfall, gusty
  winds, and frequent lightning will be possible.

- Warming trend will take place this week as many locations will
  near or surpass 100F for heat indicies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Summertime continues. Temperatures are in the 80s at this hour with
a few showers starting to show up. Storm coverage will increase
as we move into the afternoon hours. There is a remnant MCV
sitting in eastern Arkansas that will drift eastward. This could
fire up some of the activity for the afternoon. In regards to
severe storms, the threat will remain low but some gusty winds
will be possible with the strongest cells. PWAT values remain
1.8-2" which will aid in some heavy rain. Outside of localized
street flooding, the flash flood threat is low. Areas of patchy
fog will develop again overnight. Tuesday looks pretty similar to
today with diurnal showers and storms. Highs for today and
tomorrow will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A couple locations
may creep into the mid 90s on Tuesday depending on the how
widespread storms are. If temperatures are able to get into the
mid 90s on Tuesday, heat index values may exceed 105 degrees. I
will not do a Heat Advisory because my confidence is not high
enough of widespread values over 105.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The pattern is expected to remain pretty stagnant through the long
term forecast. There is a low that will work eastward across the
northern gulf, but that should stay far enough west of Middle
Tennessee before it makes the northern turn inland to really
affect our storm coverage. Expect the diurnally driven convection
to continue with highs and lows around average. We`ll have to keep
an eye on afternoon heat index values as they may get into the
105-110 range especially Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A ridge of high pressure remains situated just east of Middle
Tennessee, and the air mass characteristics are a carbon-copy of
what we observed 24 hrs. ago. Morning fog at KCSV and KSRB has
dissipated, so we`re VFR everywhere except a brief MVFR ceiling at
KMQY. As before, we`ll start off with PROB30 remarks for TS/CBs
during the afternoon, then upgrade to TEMPO once convection
develops so that we can have greater confidence in timing. Once
again, we expect radiation fog overnight at KCSV and KSRB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  74  94  75 /  50  20  30  20
Clarksville    89  73  91  74 /  50  30  50  20
Crossville     87  68  89  69 /  40  10  40  20
Columbia       92  72  93  73 /  50  20  30  20
Cookeville     87  70  90  72 /  40  20  40  20
Jamestown      87  68  89  70 /  50  10  50  20
Lawrenceburg   91  71  92  72 /  40  10  30  10
Murfreesboro   92  72  94  74 /  40  20  30  20
Waverly        90  72  91  72 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Rose