536
FXUS64 KOHX 300537
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1237 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Well above normal temperatures through Friday with highs
  reaching the low 80s to mid 90s.

- Medium to high rain chances develop Friday and continue into
  Saturday. Rain chances decrease on Sunday with cooler, drier
  weather thereafter.

- High chance for more than 1 inch of rain this weekend with the
  heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon into Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Surface high pressure is forecast to continue eastward through the
short-term which will favor southerly winds and some
amplification of the mid/upper-level ridge. We`ll see a warming
trend through Thursday as a result, with temperatures well above
seasonal norms. Current forecast highs are a few degrees short of
records on Thursday, though. We`ll also remain dry thanks to
slower moisture recovery and lack of forcing for ascent, though a
low chance for rain creeps into the forecast Thursday night into
Friday morning with pre-frontal moisture advection moving in from
the west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Rain chances continue to increase Friday into Saturday thanks to
the presence of deepening boundary layer moisture and an
approaching southern stream disturbance along with a cold front of
northern stream origins. While the disturbance aloft is progged
to lift/shear northeastward throughout Friday, which would reduce
dynamics aloft, the lingering/stalling front and anomalous
moisture axis will remain draped across Middle Tennessee into
Saturday fostering additional rain shower activity. Instability
values are low (MLCAPE <750 J/kg) due to saturated vertical
profiles and poor lapse rates, so storms should remain isolated.
Latest guidance suggests the front will begin to progress
southeast again on Sunday with influence of high pressure building
to our north, with perhaps another reinforcing cold front moving
in as well. The remainder of the forecast period (into mid next
week) would transition to cooler, stable weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. An
approaching system will increase midlevel cloud cover and begin
to tighten the pressure gradient. South winds may gust up to 20
kts in the afternoon on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      91  68  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    92  66  94  70 /   0   0   0  40
Crossville     83  59  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       92  65  94  69 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     86  65  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      84  62  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   90  64  92  68 /   0   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   92  66  95  70 /   0   0   0  10
Waverly        88  66  90  70 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Dirkes