787
FXUS64 KOHX 111106
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
606 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 602 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

- Dry conditions continue through next week

- Gradual warming trend with highs back into the mid 80s next week

- Despite another prolonged dry stretch, afternoon relative
  humidity values should remain sufficiently high to prevent any
  fire weather concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Calm conditions persist across Middle TN tonight as a centered
area of high pressure sits just off to our northwest.
Temperatures will cool into the upper 40s to low 50s overnight
with areas of patchy dense fog. The HREF is giving portions of
the southern CWA and along the Plateau a 60% to 70% chance of
visibility dropping below a 1/2 mile with only pockets of dense
fog elsewhere across the CWA. Be cautious of this overnight if
have to travel. Saturday`s forecast continues our dry and warm
stint with less cloud coverage as the low over the Great Lakes
pushes ever so slightly east. Afternoon temperatures will in turn
be a touch warmer, near 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

The long term synoptic pattern is a busy and progressive one, though
Middle TN`s position in it all favors continued dry and warming
conditions. A large ridge present over the central US will
gradually build east through the week, keeping rain chances near
0% with a gradual warming trend. With northwesterly flow aloft,
instances of increased high cloud cover will be likely, most
notably mid- week when an upper level disturbance rounds the base
of the ridge, moving through the Ohio River Valley. No rain
expected with this feature, but a temporary slight decrease in
temperature looks to follow it. Overall, temperatures in the long
term will be a few degrees above-normal with highs in the low to
mid 80s, but not too far off from seasonal norms. For context, the
normal high at Nashville for this time of year is 76. With the
prolonged period of no rain, this will likely exacerbate ongoing
drought conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

High pressure will remain over the area through the taf period.

Radiation fog will impact all terminals at the start of the
period. BNA will have brief MVFR vsby around daybreak. Elsewhere,
episodes of LIFR cigs/vsbys will occur. All sites will improve to
VFR by 14Z. Daytime winds will be mainly northeast 5-8 KT.

For Saturday night, drier air will limit fog development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      79  51  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    79  50  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     71  45  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       78  48  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     73  48  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      72  46  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   76  46  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   78  48  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        78  49  78  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....13