836
FXUS64 KOHX 181132
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
632 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

- There is low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms mainly
  west of I-65 Saturday evening into Saturday night.

- Near-record high temperatures are expected Saturday afternoon.

- Significantly cooler temperatures will settle in from Sunday
  onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

We have one more night of quiet weather before a cold front begins
spreading showers and thunderstorms into Middle Tennessee
beginning tomorrow evening. Tomorrow, as the surface boundary
closes in on our area, we can expect near-record high
temperatures. Beginning Sunday, temperatures will cool off
dramatically. In the meantime, there is a marginal to slight risk
of severe storms tomorrow evening into tomorrow night, with the
most impactful weather likely to affect areas west of I-65. The
primary risk looks to be damaging winds, but the SPC has also
placed most of Middle Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau in
a 2% tornado risk area. Looking at the forecast soundings for
tomorrow evening, there looks to be a pronounced absence of
meaningful instability. At most, the pre-frontal environment will
exhibit a "tall, thin CAPE," although low-level wind shear values
will be notable. Given the lack of instability, it appears that
convection will become organized right along or maybe slightly
behind the surface boundary. Although there will likely be some
showers that do develop ahead of the front, the strongest
convection will need some lift provided by the front itself. As
far as timing is concerned, the surface boundary will cross the
Tennessee River around 06Z, and should clear the Cumberland
Plateau by 12Z. Lingering showers will likely persist into early
Sunday, but should mostly be gone by 18Z. Storm total QPF values
for this event are reasonably uniform across the area, with most
areas potentially looking at around 1" of rainfall. Meanwhile,
surface winds will increase tomorrow afternoon as the pressure
gradient strengthens, with gusty winds continuing Saturday night
and for most the day Sunday while shifting to the WNW. Given that
most of the wrap-around moisture circulating around the attendant
surface low will remain north of Middle Tennessee, most of the
local area should see some clearing by late Sunday. Winds will
relax considerably Sunday night as clouds continue to scatter out.
Sunday night`s lows will be the coolest we have seen thus far. In
fact, some of our higher elevations may even drop into the upper
30s, so isolated areas of frost are possible Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Temperatures throughout next week will remain considerably cooler
than those we have observed these past few days. A second (dry)
cold front looks to come through Middle Tennessee on Tuesday,
which will help reinforce the cooler air. Another active weather
system may bring rain chances to the area toward the end of next
week, but model solutions really start to diverge by then, so it
is unclear when our next bonafide weather system might impact the
mid state after this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Conditions will deteriorate into this evening around 0-03z with a
cold front passing through the area. Winds will pick up this
afternoon first, gusting up to 20kts out of the south. With the
frontal passage, vsby and ceilings will drop possibly to IFR
territory, with TSRA and SHRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      88  60  68  44 /   0 100  60   0
Clarksville    89  57  67  42 /  10 100  50   0
Crossville     79  54  62  36 /  10  80  90  10
Columbia       87  58  67  40 /  10 100  50   0
Cookeville     82  56  65  39 /  10  80  80  10
Jamestown      81  55  63  38 /  10  80  90  10
Lawrenceburg   84  58  67  39 /  10 100  50   0
Murfreesboro   87  59  68  40 /  10  90  60   0
Waverly        85  54  65  41 /  10 100  40   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Holley