027
FXUS64 KOHX 290445
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1045 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1021 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

- Widespread rain showers expected Saturday night into Sunday
  morning, then again Monday night into Tuesday morning. Forecast
  total rainfall through Tuesday is 0.5"-1.5".

- Low to medium chances of light snow across northwest portions of
  Middle Tennessee Tuesday morning. Chances for 1.0" or greater
  accumulation are very low (<20%) at this time.

- Temperatures remain below-normal for the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Longwave upper-troughing remains across much of the CONUS today
with a shortwave disturbance evident on water vapor imagery across
the Northern Rockies. This system is projected to move into the
Plains tomorrow fostering a strengthening low pressure system that
will move toward the Great Lakes Saturday night. A low-level jet
is expected to form ahead of the advancing cold front which should
support warm, moist advection and widespread light rain across
Middle Tennessee into Sunday morning. Rather light rainfall
amounts are forecast. We`ll also have marginal fire weather
conditions Saturday afternoon due to low RH values and increasing
southerly gusts prior to moistening boundary layer conditions.

Until then, it`ll be another cold night tonight with lows in the
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The longwave pattern will not shift much into early next week with
broad upper-troughing and passing shortwaves. In fact, a
subsequent shortwave is projected to advance across the Southern
Plains toward the Mississippi Valley on Monday. This appears to
favor cyclogenesis close to the Gulf Coast, though southerly low-
level flow is expected to spread northward into the Ohio Valley
where cold/dry air is in place. Once lower tropospheric saturation
occurs, wintry precipitation is possible, but is currently
favoring areas north of Middle Tennessee due to warming surface
temperatures within the surface trough. Nonetheless, we continue
to monitor for any snowfall accumulations as there`s a low chance
for accumulations across the northwest half of the area. Latest
LREF probabilities show a <40% chance for seeing at least 0.1"
(measurable snow), but only 10-20% chance of seeing 1.0" or more.
We`re currently not expecting any meaningful accumulations or
impacts for that matter. A good widespread soaking of rainfall is
likely, however.

The remainder of the forecast period appears cool, dry with
continuation of below-normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Passing high clouds
overnight with increasing mid-level clouds tomorrow morning and
afternoon. Scattered rain showers move in from west to east after
21z. Southerly winds under 5 knots overnight. Winds start to pick
up towards 18z becoming 7-15 knots with gusts up to 24 knots.
MVFR/IFR cigs build in after the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      28  52  37  45 /   0  20  60  20
Clarksville    27  48  32  40 /   0  50  80  10
Crossville     21  45  35  43 /   0   0  50  40
Columbia       27  51  37  47 /   0  20  60  20
Cookeville     23  48  35  45 /   0  10  60  40
Jamestown      22  46  35  44 /   0   0  50  40
Lawrenceburg   27  51  38  47 /   0  10  60  20
Murfreesboro   25  51  37  48 /   0  10  50  30
Waverly        29  47  31  42 /   0  50  80  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Mueller