708
FXUS64 KOHX 171112
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
612 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for Thursday afternoon as Heat
  Index values are expected to climb over 105F in several
  locations west of the Cumberland Plateau.

- Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will continue for the
  foreseeable future.

- The risk of severe weather is low, however, heavy rainfall,
  gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with any
  storm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

In this pattern, if you`ve read one of our forecast discussions,
you`ve read them all. Rinse and repeat. Tonight, patchy fog will
once again be possible on the Cumberland Plateau, as it has been the
past week or so. In addition, we are monitoring some showers that
have popped up in Middle Tennessee this evening. These showers were
in some CAMs, but not until later in the night. With the tropical
disturbance to our south, thinking has been that this influx of
moisture combined with some subsidence in the area on this side of
the system has caused current guidance to struggle to accurately
depict the coverage (or outright existence) of diurnal showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon. As long as this pattern of warm and
muggy air continues, diurnal showers and thunderstorms will continue
to be a possibility.

A heat advisory is in effect Thursday afternoon for most of the area
except the Cumberland Plateau. Heat indices are expected to get as
high as 107 in some areas. If you plan on doing anything outside
Thursday, or even the rest of the week, remember to stay hydrated
and stay cool with frequent breaks in the shade or the A/C

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Biggest concern the next few days is heat indices, as there are
afternoons this weekend and into next week when they could flirt
with 110 degrees. Most likely scenario is 100 to 105 degrees,
however. We`re actively monitoring the situation for the possibility
of more heat advisories being needed. Remember your heat safety tips
and know the signs of heat illness if you have any outdoor plans
into next week.

Second biggest concern is with these diurnal storms, while severe
weather risk is low, hazardous weather could still occur. This
includes heavy rainfall rates that could lead to localized flooding,
frequent lightning, and gusty winds. If you`re spending any time
outdoors the next week, make sure you have a plan to keep yourself
safe in case a storm surprises you while you`re outdoors.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Mainly VFR conditions with light winds are expected for this TAF
cycle. However, as has been the case for the last few weeks,
late morning to early evening thunderstorm development is
expected today. Have tried to time them with PROB groups, but may
need to be adjusted as convection begins.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      95  76  92  75 /  50  30  70  20
Clarksville    93  75  89  75 /  50  30  70  20
Crossville     88  69  86  69 /  60  40  80  30
Columbia       93  74  91  74 /  40  20  60  20
Cookeville     89  72  87  72 /  50  30  80  30
Jamestown      88  71  86  70 /  60  40  80  30
Lawrenceburg   92  73  90  72 /  40  30  60  20
Murfreesboro   94  74  92  74 /  50  30  70  20
Waverly        93  74  90  74 /  40  20  60  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
TNZ005>009-023>030-056>062-075-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Unger