030
FXUS64 KOHX 011727
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Above-normal temperatures through Friday with highs reaching the
  low 80s to mid 90s Thursday.

- Medium to high rain chances develop Friday and continue into
  Sunday. Rain chances decrease throughout Sunday with cooler,
  drier weather expected into next week.

- Medium chance for more than 1 inch of rain this weekend with
  the heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon into Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1046 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

It`s another warm day with a southerly breeze like yesterday. One
difference between today and yesterday is the increase of low level
moisture. Current dew points are in the 60s instead of the 50s.
Temperatures will once again be 10-15 degrees above normal for this
time of year with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. The much-
advertised rain maker will be approaching the area overnight into
Friday with the surface front moving through during the afternoon
and evening. Scattered showers are expected to develop through
the day and continue into Friday night. The front will make it
somewhere near our southern border Friday night with some
scattered showers continuing into Saturday with southwesterly
upper flow and some ascent over the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1046 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The last wave of showers will come Saturday night into Sunday with
an additional push of upper level energy. This will also shove the
boundary farther south putting an end to the rain chances by the end
of Sunday night. Rainfall totals have not changed much with this
forecast cycle with a medium to high chance of picking up at least
half an inch and a medium chance of picking up at least one inch.
While the rain is welcomed, it will not do much in the way of
relieving the drought across the area. Today`s new drought monitor
shows an expansion of the D2 (moderate drought) and D3 (severe
drought) across western and middle Tennessee. Unfortunately, after
the weekend rain, the pattern once again turns dry next week with no
appreciable rain chances through the work week. Temperatures will be
closer to normal next week with lows in the 40s and 50s and highs in
the 70s. High temperatures may creep up into the 80s by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Wind gusts up to 20 knots are possible today out of the south.
Gusts will let up this evening around 23Z, as clouds move in ahead
of precipitation on Friday. TSRA and SHRA will move in from the NW
around 12z on Friday with winds from the west around 10 knots.
Ceilings will be VFR until the very end of the TAF period when
MVFR ceilings begin to enter from the northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  89  65  79 /   0  70  60  40
Clarksville    71  82  61  75 /   0  80  50  40
Crossville     63  83  64  77 /   0  50  50  70
Columbia       69  91  67  82 /   0  50  50  40
Cookeville     68  85  66  76 /   0  60  50  50
Jamestown      66  84  65  74 /   0  60  60  60
Lawrenceburg   68  90  67  82 /   0  40  40  50
Murfreesboro   71  91  68  82 /   0  50  40  50
Waverly        71  81  64  73 /   0  70  60  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Holley