073
FXUS64 KOHX 111130
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
530 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

- Widespread hard freeze to start Veterans Day. Slick travel from
  Monday`s snow across the Upper Cumberland.

- Temperatures will rebound quickly with above normal values
  starting Wednesday.

- Dry through the end of the week with the next chance for
  showers and storms early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1015 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

The main story this forecast cycle is the current frigid air. But,
as quickly as our winter preview arrived, it will be swept away
with a warming trend the next couple of days.

Veterans Day will begin with a hard freeze across the Mid State.
Daybreak temperatures will be in the teens to mid 20s. Falling
snow will be all gone, but slick spots will remain for the
Plateau, especially the higher elevations of the Upper Cumberland
where some areas had accumulations around 1 inch, and even 2
inches in a couple of spots.

Sunshine will warm temps above freezing by mid morning. By
afternoon, south southwest winds will kick in and readings will
climb into the 40s to lower 50s. The wind will be rather gusty to
25 mph at times, so it will still feel cooler than most of us
would like. The warming, wind, and sunshine will quickly eat away
any leftover Plateau snow.

The southwest winds will keep blowing Tuesday night, so temps will
be much more tolerable with lows in the mid 30s to around 40.

On Wednesday, the warming will really be felt with highs in the
upper 50s to mid 60s. Winds will settle down around 10 mph for
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1015 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Dry and mild conditions are expected for Thursday through
Saturday. A weak disturbance shows slight shower chances Thursday
night into Friday, but moisture appears very limited. Upper
level flow will transition from northwest to west, and
temperatures will warm. Highs will climb from mostly 60s Thursday
to mainly 70s by Saturday. Lows will be mainly in the 40s.

We continue to look for the potential for showers and storms going
into next week. However, models have been inconsistent with the
Baja bowling ball low pressure moving across the country. The
latest NBM forecast shows rain chances moving in Saturday night,
but the operational runs have slowed the system down and rain
chances may not arrive until Monday. Main story, things will be
mild and more unsettled / rainy early next week, but details are
uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR taf at all Middle TN terminals today. Winds will shift out of
the SSW after 16Z, with gusts between 15-25 kts likely through
the remainder of the period. Peak gusts for BNA look to occur
between 18Z-00Z today with the highest gusts around 25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      51  40  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    51  39  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     43  33  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       51  38  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     45  34  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      43  34  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   50  37  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   50  37  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        50  38  64  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Baggett