940
FXUS64 KOHX 190550
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1250 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

- Periods of thunderstorms tonight through Thursday. Some of the
  storms could have gusty winds tonight.

- Summer-like heat and drier weather builds in over the weekend
  lasting into next week. Heat indices climb to 100+ degrees
  during the afternoons.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Things have quieted down for now across the area after a busy
evening of thunderstorms. The forecast becomes somewhat uncertain
as we head into the overnight. A line of thunderstorms have
developed over northern AR into northern TN and this is where we
will have to keep an eye on. Some of the CAMs have this growing
upscale as it pushes to the east and it will ride southeast along
an instability gradient. We will be on the edge of that
instability gradient and much of the area will see lower
instability with less than 500 j/kg but our southwest counties
that saw less thunderstorms activity this evening will see up to
1000 j/kg. If we see this thunderstorm complex develop and grow
upscale it could bring gusty winds to southwestern part of the
area after 2 AM. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
likely across the rest of the area but the severe threat will be
low.

The overnight thunderstorms will clear the area by 8 AM. An upper
level trough will continue to track east into the Northeast. This
will continue to push a boundary across Middle TN. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will fire along and ahead of the this
boundary in southeastern areas during the afternoon and early
evening. CAPE ahead of the boundary should increase to above 1000
j/kg with bulk shear 20-30 knots. Lapse rates will be rather poor
in our area and that will limit our severe threat but still can`t
rule out a gust of wind or two with any stronger cells. PWATs
will come down some on Thursday falling to 1.20-1.45" but still
can expect heavy rain with any thunderstorms.

Quiet weather settles in Thursday night as a ridge builds in from
the west. Highs on Thursday will be in the low to mid 80s. With
the ridge building in we will warm back into the upper 80s to
lower 90s Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Strong upper level ridge will be building over the eastern US over
the weekend into next week. This will bring a prolonged period of
hot and humid weather to Middle TN. We will see highs climb into
the low to mid 90s over the weekend and they will remain there at
least through the middle of next week. It will remain humid with
dew points in the 70s pushing afternoon heat index values above
100. Major heat risk can be expected after Sunday with some of
the metro areas see extreme heat risk starting Monday. This level
of heat risk affects anyone without effective cooling and/or
adequate hydration. Overnight lows will remain mild also
throughout the period only falling into the low to mid 70s.
Overall we will stay dry through the weekend into the early part
of next week. The ridge may push just far enough east mid-week to
give us low thunderstorm chances in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Storms are moving in from the west, tracking east-southeast. This
line will likely impact all terminals. Behind these storms, cigs
will drop to MVFR and winds will shift from a currently southerly
wind to westerly winds. A return to VFR comes around 18Z.

Guidance suggests that CSV and SRB might experience some
thunderstorms during the afternoon, however, confidence on the
location of development is low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  68  91  70 /  50   0   0   0
Clarksville    85  67  90  70 /  20   0   0   0
Crossville     80  61  84  62 /  80  10   0   0
Columbia       86  66  89  68 /  50   0   0   0
Cookeville     80  63  85  65 /  80  10   0   0
Jamestown      79  61  85  63 /  70  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   85  66  88  67 /  60   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   87  66  90  68 /  60   0   0   0
Waverly        85  66  89  68 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Baggett