188
FXUS64 KOHX 190525
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1125 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1125 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

- Medium (40-60%) chance for showers and a few thunderstorms
  overnight, tapering off early Wednesday morning.

- High chances (60-100%) for rain and thunderstorms Thursday
  through Friday night.

- Above-normal temperatures continuing, possibly turning much
  colder around Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

A shortwave and weak low pressure system moving across the region
will bring scattered showers and a few storms overnight. A couple
of severe storms with large hail occurred northwest of our area
Tuesday evening, but stable boundary layer air will keep any
storms well-behaved in our area overnight. Other than some early
morning straggling showers on the Plateau, Wednesday should be
rain-free with clouds slowly decreasing from west to east under
building high pressure. This system did not bring a cold front
passage, so temperatures will remain mild with highs 10 to 15
degrees above normal.

Wednesday night will be mild with above normal humidity for this
time of year. Light winds and partial clearing will allow areas of
fog to form.

The next system, bigger and stronger, will come ot of the
southwest states with at least a couple of big waves of deep
moisture. the first big wave will develop Thursday morning with
widespread rainy conditions by Thursday afternoon lasting into the
evening. There may be some breaks in the rain late Thursday night
before the next wave. Temperatures will stay mild with deep
southwest flow ahead of the low pressure system.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

More rain is expected Friday through Friday evening. Mild
conditions will continue with strengthening southwest winds. There
may be enough instability coming up from our southwest by late
Friday for a few strong storms with enhanced gusty winds, but
that energy could instead enhance rainfall rates. This will depend
on the track of the surface low. We will have to wait and see.
The rain should taper down late Friday night through Saturday
morning. By the time rain ends, 48 hour totals between 1 and 2
inches will be common.

The wx will settle down for Sunday into Monday, but the next
southwestern system will be on approach with more rain and storms
for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Models are suggesting a pattern change around Thanksgiving with
potential for an Arctic cold front to end our mild pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Showers and possibly thunderstorms will be a issue tonight for
some sites, but nearly all sites will see a drop to MVFR or lower
conditions overnight into tomorrow. Ceilings will be the main
reason for this category change, and winds will be around 5 knots
from the NW/N through the TAF period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      63  73  53  69 /  40  10  10 100
Clarksville    59  69  50  67 /  50   0  10 100
Crossville     57  68  49  68 /  70  20   0  80
Columbia       62  76  53  74 /  50   0  10  90
Cookeville     59  69  52  67 /  60  20  10  90
Jamestown      58  67  50  66 /  70  20  10  80
Lawrenceburg   61  76  53  74 /  50   0   0  60
Murfreesboro   61  74  53  72 /  60  10  10 100
Waverly        60  69  51  67 /  60   0  10 100

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Holley