927
FXUS64 KOHX 290529
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1229 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Warming well above normal by midweek with highs reaching the
  80s to lower 90s.

- Low to medium shower chances develop by Friday, then increasing
  rain chances this weekend.

- High chance for more than 1 inch of rain this weekend with the
  heaviest rain expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday
  morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Surface high pressure remains anchored over Middle TN tonight as
we wrap up another cool, dry evening. Our 33rd dry evening in a
row to be exact...But who`s counting? Temperatures will cool into
the low to mid 50s overnight with some isolated instances of
patchy fog, mainly near bodies of water and in valleys, but
otherwise clear skies with light winds. As the ridge axis pushes
closer and closer, we will see a jump in temperatures as highs
Wednesday push into the mid to upper 80s for most of Middle TN.
With how dry the air is, it will take a few days for the
atmospheric column to moisten up, but this process will start
tomorrow and humidity will continue to increase as we head into
the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

By Thursday, PWAT values are forecast to be back near 1", which is
a whole half-inch more than where we are currently sitting. Mid-
level flow will shift southwesterly, advecting deep moisture into
the area under this ridge, leading to hot temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s by Friday with dew point temperatures in the
60s. This will make for uncomfortable conditions and result in
moderate Heat Risk, so keep this in mind if you have outdoor
interests Friday. Low to medium rain chances will finally enter
the forecast Friday afternoon, but if we see rain or not will
depend a lot on how much moisture has advected in by that point.
Going off of model soundings, profiles show much more moisture
during that time, so maybe we`re able to squeak some showers out.
If we don`t and Nashville (BNA) goes the entire day Friday
without measurable rainfall, that will officially break the record
for the most consecutive days without rainfall; 36 days is the
current record.

By Saturday, rain chances are much higher and there`s greater
confidence in rain occurring as moisture will still continue
streaming in with PWAT values forecast to approach or possibly
exceed the 2" mark. That would push above the 95th percentile
climatologically, so literally going from one extreme to the
other. There are widespread 60-70% rain chances during the
Saturday afternoon/evening - Sunday morning timeframe as multiple
disturbances move through the area: a low developing over the
gulf that will wrap up into the southwesterly flow, a low over the
southwest US sourced from the Pacific that will trek east, and
troughing over the north that will usher a shortwave and attendant
cold front through Sunday into Monday. So a lot to look at and a
lot of things that could play a role in how much rain we get. On
the plus side, with such high PWAT values and various sources of
forcing, confidence is high in us getting a good, hopefully
soaking rainfall this weekend. Ensembles are giving a 50-60%
chance of greater than 1 inch during this time, and a 20-30% of
greater than 2 inches. Given the very dry antecedent conditions,
soils will be able to handle a good amount of rainfall, but we`ll
still monitor for low-lying flooding. Showery conditions look to
linger into Monday, but we will dry back out and fall under
northwesterly flow that will drop temperatures back to more
seasonal values of mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail under high pressure.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  59  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    86  57  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     81  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       87  56  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     82  59  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      81  57  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   86  56  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   88  58  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        83  58  88  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Dirkes