395
FXUS64 KOHX 161637
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1137 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

- A Heat Advisory is now in effect for Thursday afternoon as Heat
  Index values are expected to climb above 105 degrees west of the
  Cumberland Plateau.

- Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will continue for the
  foreseeable future.

- The risk of severe weather is low, however, heavy rainfall,
  gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with any
  storm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday Night)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Not a ton going on at forecast time, however we do have some
showers and storms moving across our northern half this morning.
These should be fairly unimpactful other than to say when these
clear out of any given area, the skies will clear out and the heat
and humidity will start to crank up. Additional storm development
is expected this afternoon, much like we`ve seen the last couple
of weeks -- diurnally driven activity that will die out by the
early evening hours. Of course, any of these storms will run the
risk of lightning, gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

Over the next couple of days, much of our weather influences will be
driven by a tropical wave that is moving east to west along the
northern Gulf of America and a weak shortwave just to the north of
Middle TN. The combination of the two are expected to do two things:
increase PoPs chances for our northern half and decrease them for
our southern half as weak subsidence is experienced south of I-40.
This subsidence will also drive up temperatures/dew points a few
more degrees. For this reason, I`m going to go ahead and issue a
Heat Advisory for Thursday afternoon as the coverage of 105-110 Heat
Index values are looking more likely west of the Cumberland Plateau.
This potential will exist on Friday as well, but I think we`ll take
the issuance of Heat Advisories one day at a time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Scattered storm chances will persist right through the upcoming
weekend. It is summer, after all. Heat Index values should relax
back below 105 degrees each afternoon, however there are some
indications that by the start of next week, upper ridging will
amplify across the deep south and up into the TN/OH Valleys. While
scattered diurnal storm chances likely will not end, Heat Index
values will probably climb back into at least advisory territory.

In the end, we don`t have any organized severe weather threats over
the next 7 days, but if you have outdoor plans, keep an eye on the
sky each afternoon and stay hydrated!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Middle Tennessee finds itself caught between a surface ridge to our
south and a weak shortwave to our north this morning. The air
mass across the mid state hasn`t budged. There is plenty of
instability and available moisture, so we`re looking at low to
medium chances of rain and storms mainly this afternoon. Like
yesterday, PoPs are too low to warrant mention in the TAFs, except
along the Cumberland Plateau, where probabilities are a little
higher, so we`ve included PROB30 remarks for TS/CBs at KCSV and
KSRB. Elsewhere, we can upgrade the TAFs should convection look to
affect one or more of the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      96  77  96  77 /  50  20  40  40
Clarksville    93  76  93  76 /  20  10  40  30
Crossville     88  70  89  70 /  40  20  40  30
Columbia       93  75  94  74 /  50  10  30  30
Cookeville     90  72  90  72 /  40  20  40  40
Jamestown      89  71  89  71 /  40  30  40  40
Lawrenceburg   93  74  93  74 /  50  20  30  20
Murfreesboro   94  75  95  74 /  50  20  40  30
Waverly        92  75  93  74 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ005>009-
023>030-056>062-075-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Rose