241
FXUS64 KOHX 151745 AAA
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1145 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1129 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

- Breezy and warm on Saturday with low to medium rain chances
  (10-40%) Saturday night, rain amounts remain very light.

- Active weather pattern next week with temperatures favoring
  above-normal.

- Best rain chances are Tuesday through Friday with periods of
  showers and a few t-storms. No severe weather expected at this
  time.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

It`s a breezy and warm morning across the area with some clouds
over the southern and eastern parts. Temperatures are in the 60s
with a few locations already into the 70s. We`ll be close to the
record high of 79 at Nashville this afternoon. A cold front is
moving through the Midwest currently and will move through our
area overnight. The CAMs have some showers moving through the
northeast third of the area with QPF less than 0.1". Most of the
area is expected to remain dry.

Sunday will be cooler with northerly surface winds and highs in the
60s instead of the 70s. There will be plenty of sunshine with high
pressure parked over the Midwest. Sunday night will be the coldest
of the forecast with high pressure parked over the area. Lows will
be in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The pattern will become more active in the long term forecast. A
weak wave looks like it will move through the area Monday
night/Tuesday with more showers and possibly a rumble of thunder.
The warm air advection will ramp up in response to a surface low
that will move from the plains into the Midwest with temperatures on
Tuesday rebounding back into the 70s. Once the wave moves through
the area our upper flow will turn zonal to southwesterly as we
progress into mid to late week. This will keep temperatures warm
with more rain opportunities. Models continue to struggle with the
ejection of the deep trough in the Southwest which is making it
hard to pin down timing of PoPs and determining if there will be
any hazardous weather locally associated with that trough. We`ll
continue to monitor the trends, but right now, there is nothing
jumping off the maps at me in regards to flooding or severe
weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Gusty
southwest winds can be expected through at least 02Z before a cold
front pushes through after 06Z bringing gusty northwest to
northerly winds. KCSV and KSRB have low chances for MVFR ceilings
between 10Z-16Z with -RA possible at KCSV as well. Clear skies and
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals after 16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      78  54  65  35 /   0  10   0   0
Clarksville    77  51  63  33 /   0  10   0   0
Crossville     68  53  60  30 /   0  30   0   0
Columbia       77  56  67  36 /   0  10   0   0
Cookeville     71  53  61  32 /   0  40   0   0
Jamestown      68  51  59  32 /   0  50   0   0
Lawrenceburg   76  56  67  33 /   0  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   76  56  66  33 /   0  20   0   0
Waverly        75  51  63  37 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Hurley