577
FXUS64 KOHX 011546
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1046 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1041 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

- Low to medium rain chances return to the forecast starting on Labor
  Day. Severe weather is not expected.

- Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s for highs through the
  forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1041 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

A cluster of showers are ongoing along the plateau this morning
with MRMS estimating rainfall up to 1.5-2.5" in a couple of
localized spots in Jackson and eastern Fentress counties. There is
quite a moisture gradient this morning from our northwest where
dew points are in the low 50s to areas further south and east
where dew points are in the mid 60s. This gradient is thanks to a
surface trough set up over West Tennessee. The latest CAMs show
additional shower and storms developing through the day and into
the evening on the moist side of the boundary. Activity should
decrease after midnight.

The higher moisture will still be around on Tuesday along with a
troughy upper air pattern. This means additional shower and storm
chances Tuesday and Tuesday night. With the showers and storms
around highs on Tuesday will be a couple degrees cooler than today.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1041 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

The upper troughing will remain to start the extended period which
means the shower and storms chances will continue on Wednesday. A
deeper lobe of upper air energy will pivot around the large upper
low centered north of the Great Lakes on Thursday which will push
a surface cold front through our area throughout the day. This
will increase the PoPs. It will also turn off the rain chances for
Friday as drier air works into the region behind the front. A
secondary cold front will move through Friday night or Saturday.
If the front holds off until Saturday there could be a low chance
of some scattered showers ahead of the front but no weekend wash
out. Behind the second cold front, Sunday and Monday look pleasant
with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 50s

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

VFR conditions prevail at this time with just SCT to BKN mid and
high-level clouds. Isolated showers and thunderstorms develop
this afternoon, however, probabilities and confidence in direct
impacts and timing to terminals remains too low to include in
TAFs. There`s a low chance for showers to continue into the
overnight hours as well. Otherwise, northeasterly winds will
become southeasterly this morning, but remain light at around
5-10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  65  85  64 /  20  20  60  70
Clarksville    89  62  85  62 /  10  10  60  50
Crossville     75  57  75  57 /  40  20  40  70
Columbia       87  63  84  62 /  30  20  60  70
Cookeville     79  60  78  60 /  30  30  50  80
Jamestown      76  59  76  58 /  40  20  40  70
Lawrenceburg   83  61  82  60 /  30  20  50  80
Murfreesboro   84  63  84  62 /  30  20  50  70
Waverly        88  61  86  60 /  10  10  60  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Clements