168
FXUS64 KOHX 041129
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
529 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 529 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of the
  Cumberland Plateau tonight for ice accumulation up to 0.10".

- Mixed wintry precipitation is likely across all of Middle TN
  this evening from roughly 6PM-2AM. Some slick spots may develop
  tonight. Be cautious when travelling anywhere in the mid state.

- Temperatures warm above freezing Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

An active 24 to 36 hours is ahead of us as a system stemming from
the gulf brings a variety of precip types to Middle TN. There was
some concern earlier for a brief bout of wintry precip before
sunrise, but profiles don`t look like they`ll be saturated enough for
that to occur. For the main system, CAMs have almost unanimously
brought the onset of precip earlier over Middle TN tomorrow.
Here`s the deal: freezing air from the north will collide with
this incoming rain, likely resulting in a mixed bag of winter
precip types as the system moves east-northeast and surface temps
hover right around freezing. What will initially start as a cool
rain as it enters southwest middle TN around 6PM will eventually
transition to a mix.

IMPACTS: Ice- The area of greatest concern for ice impacts is along
the Cumberland Plateau. There is currently a 60% chance of 0.10"
of ice accumulation over portions of the plateau. Elsewhere in
Middle TN, with there being varied types of precip possible with
below-freezing temperatures, slick spots may develop Thursday
night/Friday morning, especially over bridges, overpasses, and
any sheltered roads. With surface temperatures hovering right
around the freezing mark, soundings favor episodes of both sleet
and freezing rain along and south of I-40. Snow- Accumulating
snowfall probabilities are low overall, with a 30-40% chance of a
half-inch falling over portions of northwest middle TN. The HREF
paints a large swath of a medium 40-50% chance of a tenth of an
inch of snow over the northern half of middle TN.

Precip will come to an end by early Friday morning and
temperatures will make a run at 40-45 degrees by the afternoon.
That`s good news if any impacts are felt as that will help melt
things off. The whole area will drop near or below freezing again
Friday night, but much warmer temperatures on the order of 5 to
10 degrees warmer are in store Saturday with highs in the upper
40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Saturday will be dry and cloudy as our next system approaches by
Sunday. Widespread low rain chances will return with rain chances
between 20-30% Sunday evening. Another invasion of cold air will
be left in the wake of this system`s exit Monday, and as rain
moves off to the east, lingering wraparound moisture could
squeeze out a few snowflakes across the plateau Monday morning.
Chances of that right now are very low, but will be something to
monitor. We will dry out and enjoy a slight warming trend for the
first half of next week as temperatures return back to near normal
values by Wednesday (mid 50s). Our next system is slated to move
through next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Conditions will become less than ideal this afternoon into the
overnight period. A swath of RASN will enter the area and turn to
SN in some areas, but freezing precipitation remains a concern.
Ceilings will dip into LIFR territory by 02Z and stay that way
through the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable overall,
with some places getting a steady north wind around 5 - 10 knots
this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      43  32  47  34 /  40  60   0   0
Clarksville    38  26  44  30 /  30  30   0   0
Crossville     42  31  43  32 /  20  90  20  10
Columbia       44  32  46  31 /  50  80   0   0
Cookeville     41  31  43  33 /  30  80  10  10
Jamestown      41  29  43  32 /  20  80  20  10
Lawrenceburg   44  32  46  32 /  50  80   0   0
Murfreesboro   44  32  46  32 /  40  80   0   0
Waverly        39  27  44  30 /  40  50   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM CST
Friday for TNZ032>034-065-066.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Holley