900
FXUS64 KOHX 110342
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1042 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1016 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

- Dry conditions continue through next week

- Gradual warming trend with highs back into the mid 80s next week

- Despite another prolonged dry stretch, afternoon relative
  humidity values should remain sufficiently high to prevent any
  fire weather concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Calm conditions persist across Middle TN tonight as a centered
area of high pressure sits just off to our northwest.
Temperatures will cool into the upper 40s to low 50s overnight
with areas of patchy dense fog. The HREF is giving portions of
the southern CWA and along the Plateau a 60% to 70% chance of
visibility dropping below a 1/2 mile with only pockets of dense
fog elsewhere across the CWA. Be cautious of this overnight if
have to travel. Saturday`s forecast continues our dry and warm
stint with less cloud coverage as the low over the Great Lakes
pushes ever so slightly east. Afternoon temperatures will in turn
be a touch warmer, near 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

The long term synoptic pattern is a busy and progressive one, though
Middle TN`s position in it all favors continued dry and warming
conditions. A large ridge present over the central US will
gradually build east through the week, keeping rain chances near
0% with a gradual warming trend. With northwesterly flow aloft,
instances of increased high cloud cover will be likely, most
notably mid- week when an upper level disturbance rounds the base
of the ridge, moving through the Ohio River Valley. No rain
expected with this feature, but a temporary slight decrease in
temperature looks to follow it. Overall, temperatures in the long
term will be a few degrees above-normal with highs in the low to
mid 80s, but not too far off from seasonal norms. For context, the
normal high at Nashville for this time of year is 76. With the
prolonged period of no rain, this will likely exacerbate ongoing
drought conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A surface ridge of high pressure remains situated to the northwest
of Middle Tennessee, and is unlikely to budge over the next 24
hrs. So the TAFs are VFR during the evening period and for most of
the day tomorrow. We have included overnight radiation fog at
KMQY, KCSV and KSRB, where the t-over values suggest the
likelihood of reduced vsby, especially at KSRB, even though the
NBM model guidance really isn`t picking up on any. We failed to
observe any radiation fog last night, but dew point spreads are
smaller by several degrees than 24 hrs. ago, and winds have
already gone calm at most of the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      54  79  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    52  79  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     47  71  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       50  79  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     49  74  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      48  71  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   49  76  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   50  78  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        52  78  50  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Rose