135
FXUS64 KOHX 091134
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
534 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

- Look for warmer temperatures and breezy conditions today and
  Wednesday.

- Colder air will arrive by the weekend, although expected
  temperatures won`t be nearly as frigid as previously thought.

- Rain chances through the weekend will be very low. There are
  somewhat better rain chances next weekend, but 7-day QPF values
  are less than 1/4" across all of Middle Tennessee

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 935 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

High pressure over the Great Lakes is the dominant feature
affecting our weather this evening. A surface ridge situated to
our west will shift eastward by tomorrow morning, and all
indications are that we can expect a break in what has seemed like
a perpetual overcast, particularly during the afternoon.
Temperatures tomorrow and Wednesday will be several degrees warmer
than what we have been experiencing as we pick up some much-needed
return flow. A cold front is expected to sweep across Middle
Tennessee on Wednesday, although rain chances are very low owing
to a paucity of antecedent moisture. Still, temperatures will drop
back down starting Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 935 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

A second cold front is poised to push across the region on Friday
and Friday evening, and this one is going to be painful, as
temperatures are likely to bottom out several degrees below
seasonal norms this weekend (although not as frigid as what the
NBM was suggesting 24 hours ago). Still, look for light rain to
develop late Saturday, Saturday night and into Sunday. Obviously,
we will have to monitor for possible wintry weather since
temperatures will drop below freezing Sunday morning, with daytime
highs on Sunday possibly not even making it out of the 30s.
Slightly better rain chances look to impact Middle Tennessee early next
week, along with warmer temperatures, although 7-day QPF values are
rather anemic. While the 6-10 day outlook continues to favor
below normal temperatures, the 8-14 day outlook suggests a warmer
pattern for cold-weary Middle Tennessee.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Clouds are on the increase this morning, but the bulk of clouds
are mid-level per obs off to the west. Satellite trends have been
favoring less low cigs this morning, so trimmed that back from the
previous TAF. Best chance for any MVFR cigs at BNA and MQY are
14-18z. Otherwise, expecting increasing S to SW winds through the
morning, with afternoon gusts 15-20 kts. The end of the period
should remain VFR, but a strengthening LLJ led to mention of LLWS
at all airfields beginning 06z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      51  40  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    50  40  53  27 /   0  10  10   0
Crossville     45  34  48  25 /   0   0  10  10
Columbia       49  38  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     46  35  51  27 /   0  10  10  10
Jamestown      46  35  48  26 /   0  10  20  10
Lawrenceburg   49  38  56  26 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   49  38  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        48  38  53  27 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Sizemore