746
FXUS64 KOHX 251657
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1157 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Toasty but fairly unhumid day across the midstate with current
temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s but dewpoints down in the
upper 50s to low 60s. This drier airmass along with ample sunshine
will allow highs to soar into the mid to upper 90s today west of
the Plateau. Deeper low level moisture is lurking just southwest
of our cwa and will begin moving back into the area later today,
and as a result the HRRR and CONSShort models show a couple of
popup showers or maybe a thunderstorm late this afternoon or
evening - mainly in our southwest counties. Therefore added a
very slight chance pop based on this potential.

Tomorrow continues to appear to be our best rain chances over the
next 7 days as an upper trough swings down from the north,
forcing a cold front across the region. Guidance varies wildly on
coverage and timing of showers and storms tomorrow, but in
general highest precip chances will be during the afternoon with
high likely pops warranted. Temperatures will be a challenge
tomorrow especially if there are considerable clouds and rain
during the morning, but otherwise should be a another hot and
humid day with highs well into the 90s. Forecast soundings are
all over the place with the NAM its usual aggressive self, but
consensus is around 1000-1500 J/Kg MLCAPE with mid level lapse
rates between 5-6 C/Km and deep layer shear near or less than 20
knots. These parameters, while not very impressive, would still
be favorable for a few storms to become strong or possibly severe
with damaging microburst winds the main threat. If storms can
congeal into clusters or lines as the NAM suggests, there could
be a bit higher potential for damaging winds, but this is
uncertain. SPC continues to highlight our forecast area in a
marginal risk for tomorrow, which seems quite reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Rain chances will end on Thursday and a much cooler and less
humid day is anticipated, with highs only in the mid 80s to
around 90. This cooldown will be unfortunately brief as an upper
ridge builds across much of the southern US into the weekend.
Highs will reach the mid to upper 90s for much of the midstate
Friday and Saturday with potential for a few spots to hit 100. In
addition, low level moisture is expected to be higher than we
have seen recently with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s,
which will bring max heat index values in the afternoons to around
the 105 mark on Friday and between 105-110 on Saturday.
Therefore, a Heat Advisory may be needed for parts of the midstate
on Friday and likely all of the area for Saturday. By Saturday
night into Sunday, another cold front will sink southward from the
Midwest and bring slightly cooler temperatures as well as another
round of scattered showers and storms. Coverage of this round of
rain doesn`t appear as widespread as Wednesday, so only chance
pops are currently warranted. After that, forecast is basically
rinse and repeat with a return to highs in the upper 90s by early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Light and variable winds will become south-southwesterly this
morning, then most likely light and variable again tonight. No VIS
restrictions anticipated or clouds even. VFR all the way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      98  74  97  72 /   0  20  70  60
Clarksville    96  74  92  69 /   0  10  70  40
Crossville     90  66  91  64 /   0   0  40  60
Columbia       97  71  98  69 /   0  20  50  60
Cookeville     92  69  92  67 /   0   0  50  70
Jamestown      91  69  91  66 /   0   0  50  60
Lawrenceburg   96  71  95  68 /   0  20  50  60
Murfreesboro   97  70  98  69 /   0  20  60  70
Waverly        97  74  93  68 /   0  10  60  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....05