476
FXUS64 KOHX 251710
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1210 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1202 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

- Dangerous heat will continue through Friday as heat index
  values reach into the triple digits each day.

- Rain chances will gradually increase late this week and
  especially this weekend.

- Temperatures will taper off closer to seasonal normals next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Late Wednesday morning temps were already in the lower to mid 90s
for many areas of Middle TN with heat index values in the triples.
It is going to be a scorching afternoon. We are at the peak of
this heat wave; thankfully things will get better from here.

Like yesterday, we can expect a couple of storms to break through
an otherwise capped atmosphere this afternoon. Short range models
are pointing to areas east of I-65 for today`s development. Any
of these very localized storms could contain very heavy downpours
and wind gusts over 40 mph along with the typical but underrated
hazard of lightning. Move to shelter when a storm builds or you
hear thunder.

The upper ridge will start to weaken slightly Thursday. This will
allow moisture depth to increase and capping to lessen, so a few
showers and storms will dot the entire area Thursday afternoon
and evening (20 to 30 percent coverage). The heat will continue to
be in danger territory, but the numbers will back off a degree or
2.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

We will keep the Heat Advisory going through Friday, but some
lucky locations will stay under triple digit HX values as the
upper ridge continues to slowly break down. Coverage of scattered
showers and storms will increase into the 30 to 50 percent range.

Heat will continue to back off and shower / thunderstorm coverage
will increase through the weekend as the influence of the upper
ridge continues to fade. Conditions will still be plenty warm and
humid, but nothing unusual for late June. Medium to high rain
chances will occur each afternoon and evening this weekend. Look
for the soupy, unsettled pattern to continue into Monday and
Tuesday as well.

A shortwave passage next Tuesday or Wednesday will bring a trend
toward lower rain chances and near normal temperatures as we head
toward Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Overall we will see VFR conditions through the TAF period. FEW to
SCT afternoon clouds 040-060. There is a 10-20% chance for pop up
afternoon thunderstorms with the best chances over the Plateau.
IFR conditions in any thunderstorms. There is a low chance for
patchy MVFR fog mainly for eastern areas towards daybreak. Light
and variable winds under 5 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  97  75  94 /   0  20  20  30
Clarksville    75  95  74  93 /   0  20  20  20
Crossville     69  90  68  87 /  10  30  20  60
Columbia       74  95  72  93 /   0  20  20  40
Cookeville     71  91  71  88 /  10  20  20  50
Jamestown      70  91  69  88 /  10  30  20  50
Lawrenceburg   73  94  72  91 /  10  30  20  40
Murfreesboro   74  96  73  93 /  10  20  20  40
Waverly        73  93  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Mueller